Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Spring REIT (1426 HK): Sino Ocean (Further) Maginalises PAG

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On the First Closing Date, PAG Real Estate has <a href="http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2018/1029/LTN20181029927.PDF" target="_blank">bumped</a> its Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19888" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19888:1">Spring Real Estate Investment Trust (1426 HK)</a> to $5.30/unit from $4.85. This is a 76.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Offer price will not be increased and the Offer has been extended until the 14 Nov. The deal size is now HK$6.7bn (US$858mn).  Funding has been confirmed.
Units tendered totalled 23.883% as at 4pm today, which implies PAG has 38.701% of units outstanding. It requires another 11.3% of units out to tender for the Offer to turn unconditional. This assumes unitholders do not approve the Huizhou property transaction in the interim.
The revised Offer price will be available to any unitholder who has previously accepted the Offer - provided the Offer becomes unconditional.
Expect the unit price to trade up tomorrow. Today's closing price of $3.93 indicates almost exactly a 50% chance of the Offer succeeding. Applying similar odds to the revised Offer backs out $4.15/unit. I would expect Spring to trade higher. A 60% chance of completion equates to ~$4.40. A not unreasonable 70% takes you to $4.61.

On the First Closing Date, PAG Real Estate has bumped its Offer for Spring Real Estate Investment Trust (1426 HK) to $5.30/unit from $4.85. This is a 76.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Offer price will not be increased and the Offer has been extended until the 14 Nov. The deal size is now HK$6.7bn (US$858mn).  Funding has been confirmed.
Units tendered totalled 23.883% as at 4pm today, which implies PAG has 38.701% of units outstanding. It requires another 11.3% of units out to tender for the Offer to turn unconditional. This assumes unitholders do not approve the Huizhou property transaction in the interim.
The revised Offer price will be available to any unitholder who has previously accepted the Offer - provided the Offer becomes unconditional.
Expect the unit price to trade up tomorrow. Today's closing price of $3.93 indicates almost exactly a 50% chance of the Offer succeeding. Applying similar odds to the revised Offer backs out $4.15/unit. I would expect Spring to trade higher. A 60% chance of completion equates to ~$4.40. A not unreasonable 70% takes you to $4.61.

Spring REIT - PAG Real Estate Bumps. Get Involved.