China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Alibaba to report CY1Q24 top-line, non-GAAP EBITA and non-GAAP net income in-line, (14.2%) and (7.4%) vs. consensus. We cut non-GAAP EBITA by 10% and kept topline unchanged;</li>
<li>BABA is prioritizing growth of both AliCloud and cross-border ecommerce (AliExpress), which will weaken profitability in the near-term but is the right thing to do. </li>
<li>BABA is transforming itself into Chinese Microsoft with hopes of e-commerce mainly pinned on overseas. We maintain BUY and US$ 85 TP, implying 9.5x CY24 P/E.</li>
</ul>


We expect Alibaba to report CY1Q24 top-line, non-GAAP EBITA and non-GAAP net income in-line, (14.2%) and (7.4%) vs. consensus. We cut non-GAAP EBITA by 10% and kept topline unchanged;
BABA is prioritizing growth of both AliCloud and cross-border ecommerce (AliExpress), which will weaken profitability in the near-term but is the right thing to do. 
BABA is transforming itself into Chinese Microsoft with hopes of e-commerce mainly pinned on overseas. We maintain BUY and US$ 85 TP, implying 9.5x CY24 P/E.


Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending