External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

US July Job Reports: Shifting Away to Services Sector

US August Nonfarm Payroll Suggests Only 25 Bps Rate Cut

Proprietary Nonfarm Payroll Prediction Model: Methodology and Sep 2024 Prediction

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A soft payrolls report, across the board - October payrolls came in weaker than expected at 150k vs 180k consensus, net revisions subtracted 101k from previous months, while unemployment rose one tenth to 3.9%</li><li>While part of the weakness in the October report was due to temporary effects of the United Auto Workers union strikes (this subtracted around 30k jobs), the most important for us was the significant downward revisions which suggests the September blowout jobs report was an aberration (as we had suspected at the time, and as discussed in our October Monthly)</li><li>Today’s data is more consistent with the longer term cooling trend in the labour market, as well as other labour market indicators such as continuing jobless claims, which resumed their rising trend over the past month or so</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

A soft payrolls report, across the board - October payrolls came in weaker than expected at 150k vs 180k consensus, net revisions subtracted 101k from previous months, while unemployment rose one tenth to 3.9%While part of the weakness in the October report was due to temporary effects of the United Auto Workers union strikes (this subtracted around 30k jobs), the most important for us was the significant downward revisions which suggests the September blowout jobs report was an aberration (as we had suspected at the time, and as discussed in our October Monthly)Today’s data is more consistent with the longer term cooling trend in the labour market, as well as other labour market indicators such as continuing jobless claims, which resumed their rising trend over the past month or soContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Soft US payrolls will please the Fed