Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Alex Ng is the founder and head of research of the economic and investment research house Fortress Hill Advisors. Prior to founding Fortress Hill Advisors, he worked as an economic research analyst across government, academic, and financial institutes including the Hong Kong Financial Secretary’s Office (Office of the Government Economist), Economic Research Center of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at CUHK, and State Street Global Markets. Alex holds a Master of Arts in Economics degree from Columbia University in the City of New York and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics from Wesleyan University (CT, USA).

Our firm's expertise lies in macroeconomics, global macro,  global thematic research, company and equity research, multi-asset strategy, event driven, and ESG.

We also do proprietary trading on the firm's capital, to try to vindicate our investment thesis. Our flagship publication, Heard from Fortress Hill (HFFH) provides our weekly market observations and is freely available on our website: https://fortresshill-advisors.com/hffh/

Founder & Head of Research

Proprietary Nonfarm Payroll Prediction Model: Methodology and Sep 2024 Prediction

U.S. September Nonfarm Payroll - A Strong Month and Less Downside Risk

US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

US July Job Reports: Shifting Away to Services Sector

US Nonfarm Payroll Change 272k (consensus 185k) in May-24

US Nonfarm Payroll Change 206k (consensus 190k) in Jun-24

Where US Stocks Are Heading Before Rate Cut

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k.</li>
<li>However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.3%, a reversal of July’s dip.</li>
<li>This suggests a 25bps FOMC easing in September rather than 50bps.</li>
</ul>


August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k.
However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.3%, a reversal of July’s dip.
This suggests a 25bps FOMC easing in September rather than 50bps.


US August Nonfarm Payroll Suggests Only 25 Bps Rate Cut