TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Snowflake 2Q22 Earnings: Stay Tuned to Analyst Day

Snowflake 3Q22 Earnings: The Abominable Snowman

Snowflake 4Q22 Earnings: What a Buying Opportunity

Snowflake 3Q21: Our Revenues Are Worth More Than Your Revenues

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>When we first looked at Snowflake at the time of the IPO, we saw an incredible business with great management and unbelievable business model. But the stock quickly went well beyond our valuation comfort levels, and last quarter we said we couldn’t justify owning it. We reserve the right to change our minds. The number that stood out this quarter was 168% - Snowflake’s net revenue retention in the quarter. We still think Snowflake is expensive – and you can arguably get a similar growth rate and excellent business model at half the valuation with Crowdstrike…but like many compounders (Adobe, ServiceNow), sometimes you never get the entry point you want. We think the drawdown in growth presents that opportunity.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p>
</div>

When we first looked at Snowflake at the time of the IPO, we saw an incredible business with great management and unbelievable business model. But the stock quickly went well beyond our valuation comfort levels, and last quarter we said we couldn’t justify owning it. We reserve the right to change our minds. The number that stood out this quarter was 168% - Snowflake’s net revenue retention in the quarter. We still think Snowflake is expensive – and you can arguably get a similar growth rate and excellent business model at half the valuation with Crowdstrike…but like many compounders (Adobe, ServiceNow), sometimes you never get the entry point you want. We think the drawdown in growth presents that opportunity.

Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.


Snowflake 4Q21 Earnings: Their Revenues ARE Worth More Than Yours