Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Media reports of a sharp decline in profit linked to trade tensions are not correct. Gross, operating and total net profit all increased from 1Q to 4Q of 2024.</li>
<li>Management's guidance for 1Q of 2025 has sales growth accelerating to 6% to 8% and the gross margin remaining relatively high at 19% to 21%. This looks reasonable.</li>
<li>But the shares are near their all-time high and too expensive to chase given the potential negative impact of President Trump's trade policy. Take profits.</li>
</ul>


Media reports of a sharp decline in profit linked to trade tensions are not correct. Gross, operating and total net profit all increased from 1Q to 4Q of 2024.
Management's guidance for 1Q of 2025 has sales growth accelerating to 6% to 8% and the gross margin remaining relatively high at 19% to 21%. This looks reasonable.
But the shares are near their all-time high and too expensive to chase given the potential negative impact of President Trump's trade policy. Take profits.


SMIC (SEHK: 00981, SSE STAR MARKET: 688981): Risky to Chase Strength