Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Short-Covering Trend of KOSPI 200 Deletions by Month-End

Shorting Trend Projections on KOSPI 200 Additions

KRX Autos (KODEX ETF) Rebalancing: Watch Iljin HySolus, Halla Holdings, & DTR Automotive

SK Discovery - SK Chemicals Share Purchase Summary

SK Discovery & SK Chemicals Tender Offer Summary

SK Discovery Tender Offer - Status Update & Last Tendering Day Preview

SK Discovery & SK Chemicals Tender Offer - Final Swap Price & Status Update

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>SK Discovery is a pure holding company and consists of two major subsidiaries: </p><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-chemicals-co-ltd-new" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26190:1" rel="noopener">SK Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS)</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-gas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4088:1" rel="noopener">SK Gas Ltd (018670 KS)</a></li>
</ul><p>Since the stake value of these two subsidiaries is almost the same at this point, SK Discovery's share price should be affected by the share price of these two subsidiaries in a 5:5 ratio.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Holdings"}'>Holdings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stake"}'>Stake</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value"}'>Value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SK Chemicals Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'><strong>SK Chemicals Co Ltd</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"285130"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula='="285130"'><strong>285130</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3345}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'><strong>33.45%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1132.082485056}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")*R[0]C[-1]/1000000000'><strong>₩1,132.1B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SK Gas Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'><strong>SK Gas Ltd.</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"018670"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula='="018670"'><strong>018670</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.722}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'><strong>72.20%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1139.584384728}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")*R[0]C[-1]/1000000000'><strong>₩1,139.6B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4"><strong> </strong></td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Huvis Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Huvis Corp</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"079980"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula='="079980"'>079980</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.255}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>25.50%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":91.933875}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")*R[0]C[-1]/1000000000'>₩91.9B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Other - unlisted"}'>Other - unlisted</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":186.394}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula="=186.394">₩186.4B</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; DART"}'>Source: KRX &amp; DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Assets"}'>Assets</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% NAV"}'>% NAV</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% GAV"}'>% GAV</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% Holdings"}'>% Holdings</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SK Chemicals Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[5]"><strong>SK Chemicals Co Ltd</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4642058632163233}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[7]/R13C[-3]"><strong>46.42%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4439548306409918}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]/R8C[-4]"><strong>44.40%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4439548306409918}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[5]/SUM(R2C[5]:R5C[5])"><strong>44.40%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SK Gas Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[5]"><strong>SK Gas Ltd.</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4672819869608142}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[7]/R13C[-3]"><strong>46.73%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.44689675814391905}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]/R8C[-4]"><strong>44.69%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.44689675814391905}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[5]/SUM(R2C[5]:R5C[5])"><strong>44.69%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4"><strong> </strong></td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Huvis Corp"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[5]">Huvis Corp</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.037697115154189074}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[7]/R13C[-3]">3.77%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.03605257429963345}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]/R8C[-4]">3.61%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.03605257429963345}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[5]/SUM(R2C[5]:R5C[5])">3.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Other - unlisted"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[5]">Other - unlisted</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.07643010894569513}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[7]/R13C[-3]">7.64%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.07309583691545556}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]/R8C[-4]">7.31%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.07309583691545556}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[5]/SUM(R2C[5]:R5C[5])">7.31%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Operation"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[6]C[0]">Operation</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[6]C[2]/R13C[-3]">0.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[6]C[1]/R8C[-4]">0.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Holdco net cash/debt (deconsolidated)"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[6]C[0]">Holdco net cash/debt (deconsolidated)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.022470519277573812}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[6]C[2]/R13C[-3]">-2.25%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of pref shares"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[4]C[-3]">Value of pref shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.023144554999447935}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=-R[4]C[-3]/R13C[-3]">-2.31%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART &amp; KRX"}'>Source: DART &amp; KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>However, a significant price divergence has recently occurred between SK Discovery and them. Even with SK Chemicals' recent price fluctuations caused by the activist fund (Metrica), SK Discovery did not fully synchronize. However, what is more striking is that SK Discovery's share price is not at all in sync with the recent surge in SK Gas's share price.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/230/636/original/1.png?1632009568" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="230636"></figure></section><p>SK Discovery is currently at a 61% discount to NAV. Of course, this discount rate is at a historic high.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NAV"}' data-sheets-note="Sang Hyun Park: Cases when a company's net cash position and the value of its publically traded interests are worth more than its market cap create the opportunity of a stub trade, in which investors can take a view that the company's core business will rise by shorting the minority stakes whilst going long the underlying. Such an opportunity has arisen in the wake of the Alibaba listing which has seen early investing company Yahoo trade at a discount to the value of its stake in Alibaba.">NAV</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of listed holdings"}'>Value of listed holdings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2363.600744784}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=SUM(R[0]C[10]:R[2])">₩2,363.6B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - % of Holdco market cap"}'>- % of Holdco market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.4633468515379344}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/((R[3]C[-3]*R[0]C[-3])/1000000000)">246.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of unlisted holdings"}'>Value of unlisted holdings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":186.394}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=SUM(R[1]C[10])">₩186.4B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stub value"}'>Stub value</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1590.4868527840001}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[1]C[-3]*R[-2]C[-3]/1000000000)-R[-3]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]">-₩1,590.5B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stub value per share"}'>Stub value per share</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-83543.3851546826}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*1000000000/R[-3]C[-3]">-₩83,543</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of operating assets"}'>Value of operating assets</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=SUM(R[5]C[5])">₩0.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GAV"}'>GAV</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2549.9947447840004}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-6]C[0]+R[-4]C[0]+R[-1]C[0]">₩2,550.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GAV per share"}'>GAV per share</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":134028.83112132747}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[4]C[-3]*1000000000">₩134,029</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discount to GAV (excl. treasury shares)"}'>Discount to GAV (excl. treasury shares)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6239615045633263}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-1]C[0]-R[-4]C[-3])/R[-1]C[0]">62.40%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Holdco net cash/debt (de-consolidated)"}'>Holdco net cash/debt (de-consolidated)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-54.8}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[2]C[5]">-₩54.8B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of pref shares"}'>Value of pref shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":56.44380525}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-5]C[-3]*R[-2]C[-3]+R[-5]C[-2]*R[-2]C[-2])/1000000000">₩56.4B</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"></td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NAV"}'><strong>NAV</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2438.7509395340003}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-5]C[0]+R[-2]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]"><strong>₩2,438.8B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NAV per share (excl. treasury shares)"}'><strong>NAV per share (excl. treasury shares)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":128181.80840975358}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-1]C[-3]*1000000000"><strong>₩128,182</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discount to NAV"}'><strong>Discount to NAV</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.606808480662963}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-1]C[0]-R[-9]C[-3])/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>60.68%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; DART","6":1}'>Source: KRX &amp; DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The sigma on a 20-day moving average calculated by synthesizing these two affiliates at 50:50 is -1.35 at present, and the relative price ratio compared to this synthesis has diverged sharply over the past two weeks.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/230/640/original/image_9329493321632010559259.png?1632010561" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="230640"></figure>

SK Discovery is a pure holding company and consists of two major subsidiaries: 

SK Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS) 
SK Gas Ltd (018670 KS)
Since the stake value of these two subsidiaries is almost the same at this point, SK Discovery's share price should be affected by the share price of these two subsidiaries in a 5:5 ratio.








Holdings
Ticker
Stake
Value


SK Chemicals Co Ltd
285130
33.45%
₩1,132.1B


SK Gas Ltd.
018670
72.20%
₩1,139.6B

 

Huvis Corp
079980
25.50%
₩91.9B


Other - unlisted
-
-
₩186.4B

Source: KRX &amp; DART










Assets
% NAV
% GAV
% Holdings


SK Chemicals Co Ltd
46.42%
44.40%
44.40%


SK Gas Ltd.
46.73%
44.69%
44.69%

 

Huvis Corp
3.77%
3.61%
3.61%


Other - unlisted
7.64%
7.31%
7.31%


Operation
0.00%
0.00%
-


Holdco net cash/debt (deconsolidated)
-2.25%
-
-


Value of pref shares
-2.31%
-
-

Source: DART &amp; KRX

However, a significant price divergence has recently occurred between SK Discovery and them. Even with SK Chemicals' recent price fluctuations caused by the activist fund (Metrica), SK Discovery did not fully synchronize. However, what is more striking is that SK Discovery's share price is not at all in sync with the recent surge in SK Gas's share price.SK Discovery is currently at a 61% discount to NAV. Of course, this discount rate is at a historic high.





NAV

Value of listed holdings
₩2,363.6B


- % of Holdco market cap
246.33%


Value of unlisted holdings
₩186.4B


Stub value
-₩1,590.5B


Stub value per share
-₩83,543


Value of operating assets
₩0.0B


GAV
₩2,550.0B


GAV per share
₩134,029


Discount to GAV (excl. treasury shares)
62.40%


Holdco net cash/debt (de-consolidated)
-₩54.8B


Value of pref shares
₩56.4B



NAV
₩2,438.8B


NAV per share (excl. treasury shares)
₩128,182


Discount to NAV
60.68%

Source: KRX &amp; DART

The sigma on a 20-day moving average calculated by synthesizing these two affiliates at 50:50 is -1.35 at present, and the relative price ratio compared to this synthesis has diverged sharply over the past two weeks.

SK Discovery in a Massive Price Divergence Vs. The Synthetic Involving SK Gas

Sk Discovery

SK Discovery in a Massive Price Divergence Vs. The Synthetic Involving SK Gas