Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

ASEAN Reopening: Tourism and Transport Reboot

ASEAN Reopening: Tourism and Transport Reboot - Part Deux

Platinum (PLAT): The Shoppers Coming Back

Singapore Air - The Rights Distribution - Vol Is Your Friend

Singapore Air Rights MCBs - S$6.2bn of Capital Suck

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

In the United States, as per FAA classifications, any airplane with a MTOW (Maximum Takeoff Weight) of 300,000 pounds (136,000kg) is classified as heavy".
The pilot will designate his plane as "heavy" when talking to the Aircraft Control Tower  when taking off and landing to make clear that the tower should maintain separation between it and other aircraft. Tonight's flight from Singapore to Frankfurt the pilot might say "Tower, this is Singapore 26 Heavy..."
The issue is that the larger the airplane, and the slower it is going, the more 'wake turbulence" is created. That "wake turbulence" primarily comes from two sources. The first is the "jet wash" (which is the moving air coming out of jet engines - it is chaotic, and of short duration) made famous for many in the movie Top Gun.  The second is "wingtip vortices" where as the wing is generating lift, air flows over the wing in a regular pattern, and at the wingtips and other points, it swirls. This is highly regular, stable, and actually will last for minutes. This is the more dangerous, despite its stability. It is most easily seen in the rain or in super high humidity environments.
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/236/646/original/wingtip+turbulence+gig.gif?1634795021" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="236646"></figure>
</section>
Tower is supposed to give time between planes so as the one coming after avoids the residual turbulence which may exist.
After the big plane does the big thing, you avoid the area. 
When covid-19 suddenly hit travel in early 2020, airlines around the world were reasonably quick to reduce capacity, and costs, and to raise equity to get through what was going to be a lean period. Singapore Air raised S$8.8bn in summer of 2020, and promised a possible raise of another S$6.2bn in summer of 2021. It ended up raising that in June as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-air-rights-mcbs-s-6-2bn-of-capital-suck" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51906" rel="noopener">Singapore Air Rights MCBs - S$6.2bn of Capital Suck</a>.
As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-air-the-rights-distribution-vol-is-your-friend" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39991" rel="noopener">Singapore Air - The Rights Distribution - Vol Is Your Friend</a> last year, the Rights Shares and Rights Mandatory Convertible Bonds (MCBs) significantly diluted common shareholders so even if there was a V-shaped recovery in business prospects, there would not be a V-shaped recovery in earnings per share. And that was the best case. 
The worst case was worse. 
More below the fold.

In the United States, as per FAA classifications, any airplane with a MTOW (Maximum Takeoff Weight) of 300,000 pounds (136,000kg) is classified as heavy".
The pilot will designate his plane as "heavy" when talking to the Aircraft Control Tower  when taking off and landing to make clear that the tower should maintain separation between it and other aircraft. Tonight's flight from Singapore to Frankfurt the pilot might say "Tower, this is Singapore 26 Heavy..."
The issue is that the larger the airplane, and the slower it is going, the more 'wake turbulence" is created. That "wake turbulence" primarily comes from two sources. The first is the "jet wash" (which is the moving air coming out of jet engines - it is chaotic, and of short duration) made famous for many in the movie Top Gun.  The second is "wingtip vortices" where as the wing is generating lift, air flows over the wing in a regular pattern, and at the wingtips and other points, it swirls. This is highly regular, stable, and actually will last for minutes. This is the more dangerous, despite its stability. It is most easily seen in the rain or in super high humidity environments.



Tower is supposed to give time between planes so as the one coming after avoids the residual turbulence which may exist.
After the big plane does the big thing, you avoid the area. 
When covid-19 suddenly hit travel in early 2020, airlines around the world were reasonably quick to reduce capacity, and costs, and to raise equity to get through what was going to be a lean period. Singapore Air raised S$8.8bn in summer of 2020, and promised a possible raise of another S$6.2bn in summer of 2021. It ended up raising that in June as discussed in Singapore Air Rights MCBs - S$6.2bn of Capital Suck.
As discussed in Singapore Air - The Rights Distribution - Vol Is Your Friend last year, the Rights Shares and Rights Mandatory Convertible Bonds (MCBs) significantly diluted common shareholders so even if there was a V-shaped recovery in business prospects, there would not be a V-shaped recovery in earnings per share. And that was the best case. 
The worst case was worse. 
More below the fold. 

Singapore Airlines

Singapore Airlines - Still "Heavy"