Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Sakai Ovex Tender Offer Fails But The Stock Gains an Activist

Sakai Ovex MBO Reloaded - Up 27% from Last Weak Bump But Still Cheap

Sakai Ovex MBO - Wrong Price (And the Bidder Knows It)

The Amended FamilyMart Document Is A MUST READ For Investor-Stewards

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Almost exactly a month ago, an MBO was launched on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sakai-ovex-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20002:1" rel="noopener">Sakai Ovex (3408 JP)</a> at ¥2850/share.</p>
<p>It was launched at an all-time high, but it was the wrong price. And one of the well-known value players in Japan <em>knew</em> it was the wrong price, because he was the bidder as was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sakai-ovex-mbo-wrong-price-and-the-bidder-knows-it" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47961" rel="noopener">Sakai Ovex MBO - Wrong Price (And the Bidder Knows It)</a>.</p>
<p>I suggested a bump might be necessary.</p>
<p>The shares immediately jumped through terms, and shares have traded through terms every day since then with both VWAP and closing price above the ¥2850/share Tender Offer Price every day since announcement. 40% of shares out and 50% of float has traded, but nobody has announced a Large Shareholder Filing on the buy side since the original announcement. </p>
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<p>Today brought new news.</p>
<h2>The NEW News</h2>
<p>Today, the Bidder for Sakai Ovex <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/BLMainController.jsp?uji.verb=W00Z1020initialize&amp;uji.bean=ek.bean.EKW00Z1020Bean&amp;TID=W00Z1020&amp;PID=W1E63041&amp;SESSIONKEY=1615194046039&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=S100KXCF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> they had raised their bid from ¥2850/share to ¥3000/share, for a bump of 5.26%. </p>
<p>A little arithmetic will tell you this is STILL the wrong price. </p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>

Almost exactly a month ago, an MBO was launched on Sakai Ovex (3408 JP) at ¥2850/share.
It was launched at an all-time high, but it was the wrong price. And one of the well-known value players in Japan knew it was the wrong price, because he was the bidder as was discussed in Sakai Ovex MBO - Wrong Price (And the Bidder Knows It).
I suggested a bump might be necessary.
The shares immediately jumped through terms, and shares have traded through terms every day since then with both VWAP and closing price above the ¥2850/share Tender Offer Price every day since announcement. 40% of shares out and 50% of float has traded, but nobody has announced a Large Shareholder Filing on the buy side since the original announcement. 



Today brought new news.
The NEW News
Today, the Bidder for Sakai Ovex announced they had raised their bid from ¥2850/share to ¥3000/share, for a bump of 5.26%. 
A little arithmetic will tell you this is STILL the wrong price. 
More below the fold. 

Sakai Ovex

Savai Ovex MBO - A Very Weak Bump