European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

CPI/Immofinanz: CPI Matches S Immo's Offer and Secures Another Stake

CA Immo: Raised Offer, Aggregate's Potential Competing Offer

Event-Driven

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On 25 March, <a href="https://immofinanz.com/en/news/immofinanz-ag-price-increase-for-the-announced-voluntary-public-takeover-offer-to-the-shareholders-of-s-immo-ag" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Immofinanz increased the offer price by 23%</a>, to €22.5 per share (less than 4% below my TP).
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<li>The offer price represents 47.2x EV/Fwd EBITDA,  18.4x P/Fwd E and 1.18x P/Fwd BV.</li>
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S Immo shares are currently trading at a 3% FFO yield and offer a 1.9% dividend yield (source: Capital IQ consensus). Diluted EPRA NNNAV per share as of YE 2020 was €20.67 (vs. €20.02 at Q3 2020).
The improved offer price seems fair, but not overly generous, at the same level at which S Immo was trading in December 2019, around €22.5 per share. The market seems happy with this outcome.
Immofinanz quickly improved its opening gambit as S Immo's shares were trading higher than the initial offer. The improved offer price represents 2.9% 21e FFO yield and almost the same as mean consensus ind. NAVPS.
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Recommendation is long, TP €22.5 (around the same level as mean consensus ind NAVPS, supported by FFO/share yield). The shares are trading at a gross spread of 4.4%, c. 9% annualised. Patience may be needed to build a position.
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On 25 March, Immofinanz increased the offer price by 23%, to €22.5 per share (less than 4% below my TP).

The offer price represents 47.2x EV/Fwd EBITDA,  18.4x P/Fwd E and 1.18x P/Fwd BV.

S Immo shares are currently trading at a 3% FFO yield and offer a 1.9% dividend yield (source: Capital IQ consensus). Diluted EPRA NNNAV per share as of YE 2020 was €20.67 (vs. €20.02 at Q3 2020).
The improved offer price seems fair, but not overly generous, at the same level at which S Immo was trading in December 2019, around €22.5 per share. The market seems happy with this outcome.
Immofinanz quickly improved its opening gambit as S Immo's shares were trading higher than the initial offer. The improved offer price represents 2.9% 21e FFO yield and almost the same as mean consensus ind. NAVPS.


Recommendation is long, TP €22.5 (around the same level as mean consensus ind NAVPS, supported by FFO/share yield). The shares are trading at a gross spread of 4.4%, c. 9% annualised. Patience may be needed to build a position.


S IMMO AG

S-Immo Raised Offer, Attractive Spread