European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

RDI REIT - Starwood: Expectations of a Bumped-Up Offer

Event-Driven

On 20 February, Bloomberg reported that real estate investor Aggregate Holdings is in conversations with CA Immo for a potential offer for the company, which could be partial, at a price of €36 per share.
On 26 February, SOF-11 Klimt CAI S.à r.l. <a href="https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/sof-11-klimt-cai-s-a-r-l-bidco-a-controlled-affiliate-of-starwood-capital-group-announces-an-increase-of-the-offer-price-for-the-public-takeover-offer-of-ca-immobilien-anlagen-ag-ca-immo--851722416.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced an increase in the offer price</a>, from €34.44 to €36.00 (cum dividend).
<ul>
<li>4.5% higher than its initial offer.</li>
<li>The offer price for each CA Immo convertible bond with nominal value of EUR 100,000 will be increased from approx. €132,621.35 to approx. €138,628.59</li>
</ul>
Now Starwood has outmaneuvered before Aggregate presents any offer, which will put some pressure on Aggregate for a significant improvement.
The improved offer of  €36.0 represents:
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>1.13x P/ 2021e BV</li>
<li>95.3% deal value/consensus NAV, per share (assuming a NAV estimate per share of €37.79, source: S&amp;P MI).</li>
<li>c. 6.1% discount to diluted EPRA NAV (Q3 20).</li>
</ul>
</div>
Gross spread to the new offer price is 1.26%. Further upside could come from a competing offer. Reiterate LONG.

On 20 February, Bloomberg reported that real estate investor Aggregate Holdings is in conversations with CA Immo for a potential offer for the company, which could be partial, at a price of €36 per share.
On 26 February, SOF-11 Klimt CAI S.à r.l. announced an increase in the offer price, from €34.44 to €36.00 (cum dividend).

4.5% higher than its initial offer.
The offer price for each CA Immo convertible bond with nominal value of EUR 100,000 will be increased from approx. €132,621.35 to approx. €138,628.59

Now Starwood has outmaneuvered before Aggregate presents any offer, which will put some pressure on Aggregate for a significant improvement.
The improved offer of  €36.0 represents:


1.13x P/ 2021e BV
95.3% deal value/consensus NAV, per share (assuming a NAV estimate per share of €37.79, source: S&amp;P MI).
c. 6.1% discount to diluted EPRA NAV (Q3 20).


Gross spread to the new offer price is 1.26%. Further upside could come from a competing offer. Reiterate LONG.

CA Immo: Raised Offer, Aggregate's Potential Competing Offer

CA Immobilien Anlagen AG

CA Immo: Raised Offer, Aggregate's Potential Competing Offer