Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Was on the buyside for 15 years, most recently at a medium-sized boutique asset management firm. I grew up in Europe, went to university in the US and have been living in Singapore for the last 7 years which has given me a broad scope on the world and investing in general.

Consider myself a generalist investor with a preference for small and mid-cap companies and special situations. However, a large cap that has gone temporarily out of favor might also pique my interest. 

My style of investing could be categorized as more of value investor, rather than growth at any cost. Learning from Charlie Munger on the importance of quality of a company has been of tremendous value over the years.I like businesses with real earnings, cash flows, dividends, book value and insider ownership.

Insight Provider

Rex: Norway Oil Deal Increases Optionality to Create Shareholder Value

Rex: Oman + Norway + Malaysia Is the New Trifecta; Stock Trades at 1.5x 2021 Earnings

Preview Rex International FY21 Results: Prime Beneficiary Of Rising Oil Price

Rex Int: From Virtual Drilling Tech Play to Pumping Oil in Oman; Overlooked Bargain + M&A Candidate

Rex: Oman Production Gaining Steam; Could It Really Trade at 1x 2021 Pre-Tax Profits?

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Rex International Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

Earlier this week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rex-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17074:1" rel="noopener">Rex International Holding (REXI SP)</a><a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/20210616_RIH_PressRelease_LimeAcquiresProducingBrageField_Final.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=671402" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that its 90% subsidiary Lime Petroleum would be acquiring a minority stake from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/repsol-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21292:1" rel="noopener">Repsol SA (REP SM)</a> in the Norwegian Brage oil field. In contrast to the rest of Rex's Norwegian assets which are mainly exploration targets, the Brage oil field has been producing oil since 1993 and reached its peak production in 1998. Lime paid 42.6 million USD for a 33.84% stake in Brage (please note it has significant amount of deferred tax assets included here). Interestingly, the transaction has been backdated to start 1 January 2021 so accounting wise Rex will book the cash flows associated with Brage in its full year 2021 report. The 1H21 report was already going to show great cash flow production from its Yumna field in Oman. The just announced acquisition in Norway just adds to this for 2H21 once the deal closes in September. Risks to closing of the transaction is the successful placement of a 2.5 year 60M USD bond in Norway (expected interest rate 10%). Norwegian investors are very familiar with oil companies so we expect no issues in placing the debt.
Why was Rex able to buy such an asset from Repsol? The Spanish oil giant is clearly divesting marginal oil investments as earlier this month <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hibiscus-petroleum-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20775:1" rel="noopener">Hibiscus Petroleum (HIBI MK)</a> announced it bought Repsol's Vietnam and Malaysian assets for 212.5 million USD. We see this as a typical board room decision by Repsol to get rid of marginal fields and the price the assets are acquired for is less important.
Oil = The New Tobacco? While oil companies have been put in a bad light (see recent Shell and Exxon Mobil news) the reality is that oil consumption will be with us for decades to come and cuts in capex by the majors are likely to lead to higher oil prices. For non-ESG obsessed investors the oil industry reminds us of the tobacco industry 20 years ago. ESG agnostic investors could potentially make significant returns in the oil &amp; gas sector just like tobacco investors did between 1998 to 2018.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/888/original/image?1624003554" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213888"></figure>
Rex remains a great risk/reward story as cash flow from Oman ramps up in 1H21 and cash flow from Norway gets added in 2H21. As highlighted in our previous insight we think Rex currently trades anywhere between 1x to 2x pre-tax cash flows (depending on input variables such as oil price, days production, etc). The 1H21 results in mid-August 2021 should be a wake-up call to investors. Given the age of its principle shareholders Rex remains a prime M&amp;A candidate at some point.

Earlier this week Rex International Holding (REXI SP)announced that its 90% subsidiary Lime Petroleum would be acquiring a minority stake from Repsol SA (REP SM) in the Norwegian Brage oil field. In contrast to the rest of Rex's Norwegian assets which are mainly exploration targets, the Brage oil field has been producing oil since 1993 and reached its peak production in 1998. Lime paid 42.6 million USD for a 33.84% stake in Brage (please note it has significant amount of deferred tax assets included here). Interestingly, the transaction has been backdated to start 1 January 2021 so accounting wise Rex will book the cash flows associated with Brage in its full year 2021 report. The 1H21 report was already going to show great cash flow production from its Yumna field in Oman. The just announced acquisition in Norway just adds to this for 2H21 once the deal closes in September. Risks to closing of the transaction is the successful placement of a 2.5 year 60M USD bond in Norway (expected interest rate 10%). Norwegian investors are very familiar with oil companies so we expect no issues in placing the debt.
Why was Rex able to buy such an asset from Repsol? The Spanish oil giant is clearly divesting marginal oil investments as earlier this month Hibiscus Petroleum (HIBI MK) announced it bought Repsol's Vietnam and Malaysian assets for 212.5 million USD. We see this as a typical board room decision by Repsol to get rid of marginal fields and the price the assets are acquired for is less important.
Oil = The New Tobacco? While oil companies have been put in a bad light (see recent Shell and Exxon Mobil news) the reality is that oil consumption will be with us for decades to come and cuts in capex by the majors are likely to lead to higher oil prices. For non-ESG obsessed investors the oil industry reminds us of the tobacco industry 20 years ago. ESG agnostic investors could potentially make significant returns in the oil &amp; gas sector just like tobacco investors did between 1998 to 2018.

Rex remains a great risk/reward story as cash flow from Oman ramps up in 1H21 and cash flow from Norway gets added in 2H21. As highlighted in our previous insight we think Rex currently trades anywhere between 1x to 2x pre-tax cash flows (depending on input variables such as oil price, days production, etc). The 1H21 results in mid-August 2021 should be a wake-up call to investors. Given the age of its principle shareholders Rex remains a prime M&amp;A candidate at some point. 

Rex: Buying More Producing Assets in Norway, 1H21 Cash Flow Report to Be Transformational