FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

EUR Hits a New Low for 2018, Emerging Markets Under-Perform

A Pervasive Rise in Yields May Propel Further USD Gains

EM FX Leading a Broader USD Cycle Low in Asia

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>It is easy to be cynical about newfound USD bullish sentiment, where suddenly yields and rates matter for currencies.  However, rates and yields have more often played a dominant role in currency markets.  Now that the equity market has become more volatile and confidence in the global economy has ebbed, we may see the USD continue to reconnect to its interest rate and yield differentials.  In more automated and index driven markets, we may see a surprisingly rapid rebound in the USD with limited retracement. Political uncertainty has weighed on the USD over the last year, but Trump has gained traction with tax reform, trade policy, progress in Korea, and can claim credit for stronger economic momentum.  A more assertive policy towards Syria and Iran may help improve Trump’s approval at home while increasing geopolitical uncertainty.  It is too early for the market to be fretting about twin deficits.  It needs to wait until there is a clearer picture of how Trump’s policies influence potential output, and the peak in US rates and yields are in sight.  AUD/USD has broken key support and maybe reconnecting to its now negative yield spread across its entire yield curve.  It faces headwinds from protectionist trade policies, tightening Chinese financial sector oversight, a weaker housing market, rising bank funding costs, pressure on its financial sector from a Royal Commission into its misconduct, and political uncertainty.</em></p>

It is easy to be cynical about newfound USD bullish sentiment, where suddenly yields and rates matter for currencies.  However, rates and yields have more often played a dominant role in currency markets.  Now that the equity market has become more volatile and confidence in the global economy has ebbed, we may see the USD continue to reconnect to its interest rate and yield differentials.  In more automated and index driven markets, we may see a surprisingly rapid rebound in the USD with limited retracement. Political uncertainty has weighed on the USD over the last year, but Trump has gained traction with tax reform, trade policy, progress in Korea, and can claim credit for stronger economic momentum.  A more assertive policy towards Syria and Iran may help improve Trump’s approval at home while increasing geopolitical uncertainty.  It is too early for the market to be fretting about twin deficits.  It needs to wait until there is a clearer picture of how Trump’s policies influence potential output, and the peak in US rates and yields are in sight.  AUD/USD has broken key support and maybe reconnecting to its now negative yield spread across its entire yield curve.  It faces headwinds from protectionist trade policies, tightening Chinese financial sector oversight, a weaker housing market, rising bank funding costs, pressure on its financial sector from a Royal Commission into its misconduct, and political uncertainty.

Regime Change for the USD; AUD Breaks Down