Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

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Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There is an adage among the nautical set:
Red sky at night, sailor’s delight.
Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning.
In the global economy, there are signs of a red sky in the morning. Last week, IHS Markit highlighted falling global manufacturing PMI. Stagnant growth can be attributed to a slowdown in export orders in every major region of the world. In particular, the export order components of the UK, Japan, China, and much of Asia are below 50, indicating negative growth.
A quick macro tour around the globe shows that the global economy ex-US is slowing. The slowdown is most evident in Asia, and Trump's trade policies are likely exacerbating the downturn. Softness is also beginning to appear in Europe, and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is not helping the UK outlook.
In the US, the nowcast remains robust, but tailwinds are starting to turn into headwinds. At the same time, policy direction is charting a bearish course. The Fed is determined to continue to tighten monetary policy. At the current pace, the yield curve is likely to invert in late 2018 or early 2019. The Trump administration appears to be determined to plunge the country into a full-blown trade war (see our January publication <a href="https://humblestudentofthemarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/20180103-Trade-war.pdf" target="_blank">Modeling Trump's Trade War</a>).
In short, the clouds are gathering. Observant investors are seeing the metaphorical "red sky in the morning". How many will take heed of this warning?

There is an adage among the nautical set:
Red sky at night, sailor’s delight.
Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning.
In the global economy, there are signs of a red sky in the morning. Last week, IHS Markit highlighted falling global manufacturing PMI. Stagnant growth can be attributed to a slowdown in export orders in every major region of the world. In particular, the export order components of the UK, Japan, China, and much of Asia are below 50, indicating negative growth.
A quick macro tour around the globe shows that the global economy ex-US is slowing. The slowdown is most evident in Asia, and Trump's trade policies are likely exacerbating the downturn. Softness is also beginning to appear in Europe, and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is not helping the UK outlook.
In the US, the nowcast remains robust, but tailwinds are starting to turn into headwinds. At the same time, policy direction is charting a bearish course. The Fed is determined to continue to tighten monetary policy. At the current pace, the yield curve is likely to invert in late 2018 or early 2019. The Trump administration appears to be determined to plunge the country into a full-blown trade war (see our January publication Modeling Trump's Trade War).
In short, the clouds are gathering. Observant investors are seeing the metaphorical "red sky in the morning". How many will take heed of this warning?

Red Sky in the Morning