Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Recruit (6098 JP) Buyback - It's Big But Not THAT Big; Value Act Effect Vs Corp Selldown Vs Multiple

Recruit Holdings (6098) | 2024 High Conviction

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> announced a ¥200bn buyback which sounded big but with lots of cross-holders, wasn't huge. The stock is up 80% in 6+ months since.</li>
<li>Today, the company announced a new buyback of ¥600bn. This is very aggressive, and at 25x EBITDA and 40x PER, is probably due to demand to sell. </li>
<li>Crossholders now hold ¥2trln which is three-plus times this buyback. And if the price were to rise 10% a year for 3yrs, it would be four times.</li>
</ul>


Last December, Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) announced a ¥200bn buyback which sounded big but with lots of cross-holders, wasn't huge. The stock is up 80% in 6+ months since.
Today, the company announced a new buyback of ¥600bn. This is very aggressive, and at 25x EBITDA and 40x PER, is probably due to demand to sell. 
Crossholders now hold ¥2trln which is three-plus times this buyback. And if the price were to rise 10% a year for 3yrs, it would be four times.


Recruit (6098 JP) - BIG Headline Buyback But Disappointing if That Is Best Use Of Cash