FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

NZD Resilience Rooted in Immigration, Low Global Yields and Strong EM Markets, Political Risk Looms

When Does Political Risk Matter in New Zealand? EUR Now a High Beta Currency

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

At its 11 May policy meeting, the RBNZ was surprisingly dovish, tending to dismiss the rise in Q1 inflation as largely temporary, and forecasting only a very gradual return in underlying inflation to its 2% target towards the end of its three-year horizon.  It forecast rates on hold until the second half of 2019.  This dovish assessment only had a very short-lived dampening impact on the NZD that has since rebounded to the top of its range again in the last six weeks.  The rise in the NZD has been aided by weaker US bond yields, a weaker USD, and strong emerging market assets.  NZ commodity prices have also firmed providing support for the NZD, especially against the AUD and CAD that have faced weaker prices for their main commodity exports. The RBNZ policy statement this Thursday is likely to maintain its dovish policy assessment.  It does not release new forecasts at this meeting, but we expect it to repeat its view that “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.” While business and consumer surveys remain strong, since the May meeting, GDP was reported to be modest for the second quarter in a row, and annual growth has slowed to the low side of its range for the last 5 years.  The housing market continues to remain more subdued, and the construction boom appears to have peaked.  There has been no new data on inflation, wages or employment.  The RBNZ is likely to express some disappointment with the rebound in the NZD.  The RBNZ has released a consultative paper on adding debt-to-income limits to its macroprudential tools to control the housing market, which should keep rate expectations low.  Political risk should also build for the NZD as its national election on 23 September approaches.

At its 11 May policy meeting, the RBNZ was surprisingly dovish, tending to dismiss the rise in Q1 inflation as largely temporary, and forecasting only a very gradual return in underlying inflation to its 2% target towards the end of its three-year horizon.  It forecast rates on hold until the second half of 2019.  This dovish assessment only had a very short-lived dampening impact on the NZD that has since rebounded to the top of its range again in the last six weeks.  The rise in the NZD has been aided by weaker US bond yields, a weaker USD, and strong emerging market assets.  NZ commodity prices have also firmed providing support for the NZD, especially against the AUD and CAD that have faced weaker prices for their main commodity exports. The RBNZ policy statement this Thursday is likely to maintain its dovish policy assessment.  It does not release new forecasts at this meeting, but we expect it to repeat its view that “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.” While business and consumer surveys remain strong, since the May meeting, GDP was reported to be modest for the second quarter in a row, and annual growth has slowed to the low side of its range for the last 5 years.  The housing market continues to remain more subdued, and the construction boom appears to have peaked.  There has been no new data on inflation, wages or employment.  The RBNZ is likely to express some disappointment with the rebound in the NZD.  The RBNZ has released a consultative paper on adding debt-to-income limits to its macroprudential tools to control the housing market, which should keep rate expectations low.  Political risk should also build for the NZD as its national election on 23 September approaches.

AUD

RBNZ to Remain Dovish