FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

AUD Clouds Clearing, GBP Storm Clouds Brewing

When Does Political Risk Matter in New Zealand? EUR Now a High Beta Currency

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>We are a bit surprised to see the NZD/USD test new highs in light of some correction in emerging market currencies and equities in recent weeks.  However, in a broad context, the steady narrowing in global risk premiums in the last two years and renewed fall in US government bond yields this year appears to be supporting the NZD, even if its yield advantage is at a low since 2001.  The NZD has also been supported by stronger commodity prices since mid-2016.  The CBA NZ commodity price index for New Zealand is at a high since 2014.  The RBNZ noted that immigration and terms of trade support the NZD growth outlook. Indeed both are at record highs.  The construction boom may have peaked, and the housing market may have cooled more permanently. GDP growth has been below potential in recent quarters.  However business surveys remain stable at a strong level, and the outlook for growth remains solid.  The NZ government has returned to a budget surplus and has loosened the purse strings a bit heading into the election on 23 September.  Hot button election issues are immigration and housing affordability.  These issues open the door for opposition parties to place heat on the governing National Party.  The market appears oblivious to the risk that a less stable or change of government.  The RBNZ retained a subdued view on the inflation outlook, in part because they are influenced by the global theme of stagnant wage growth and subdued core inflation. However, its low stable rates guidance includes plenty of wriggle room. Compared to most other countries, NZ has stronger more stable growth, nearer its capacity.  As such, many participates see upside risk for NZ rates. The NZD may seem more fully priced, with some election risk, but it is hard to identify immediate threats. A return to a stronger USD and higher US yields may eventually see the NZD lower.</em></p>

We are a bit surprised to see the NZD/USD test new highs in light of some correction in emerging market currencies and equities in recent weeks.  However, in a broad context, the steady narrowing in global risk premiums in the last two years and renewed fall in US government bond yields this year appears to be supporting the NZD, even if its yield advantage is at a low since 2001.  The NZD has also been supported by stronger commodity prices since mid-2016.  The CBA NZ commodity price index for New Zealand is at a high since 2014.  The RBNZ noted that immigration and terms of trade support the NZD growth outlook. Indeed both are at record highs.  The construction boom may have peaked, and the housing market may have cooled more permanently. GDP growth has been below potential in recent quarters.  However business surveys remain stable at a strong level, and the outlook for growth remains solid.  The NZ government has returned to a budget surplus and has loosened the purse strings a bit heading into the election on 23 September.  Hot button election issues are immigration and housing affordability.  These issues open the door for opposition parties to place heat on the governing National Party.  The market appears oblivious to the risk that a less stable or change of government.  The RBNZ retained a subdued view on the inflation outlook, in part because they are influenced by the global theme of stagnant wage growth and subdued core inflation. However, its low stable rates guidance includes plenty of wriggle room. Compared to most other countries, NZ has stronger more stable growth, nearer its capacity.  As such, many participates see upside risk for NZ rates. The NZD may seem more fully priced, with some election risk, but it is hard to identify immediate threats. A return to a stronger USD and higher US yields may eventually see the NZD lower.

NZD Resilience Rooted in Immigration, Low Global Yields and Strong EM Markets, Political Risk Looms