Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: Hawkish UK Hours and Wages in Aug-18

FLASH: Disinflationary UK Surprise in Sep-18

Preview: UK Oct-18 Inflation and Q3 Labour Market

UK Inflation: Seasonals Still a Source of Surprise

FLASH: UK Wages Surge Beyond BoE Forecast in Jul-18

FLASH: Surprise UK Inflation Surge in Aug-18

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>Tuesday’s UK labour market report should be a story of bullish stability, with the UR at 4.0% and wage growth at 2.9%. Both remain on improving trends.</em></li>
<li><em>I expect UK inflation to disappoint market expectations by falling from 2.65% to 2.5% on the CPI in Sep-18 while my RPI forecast sits uncomfortably close to rounding even lower than 3.4%. Shifting seasonals support another downside surprise.</em></li>
</ul>


Tuesday’s UK labour market report should be a story of bullish stability, with the UR at 4.0% and wage growth at 2.9%. Both remain on improving trends.
I expect UK inflation to disappoint market expectations by falling from 2.65% to 2.5% on the CPI in Sep-18 while my RPI forecast sits uncomfortably close to rounding even lower than 3.4%. Shifting seasonals support another downside surprise.


Preview: UK Sep-18 Inflation and Aug Labour Market