Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK Cycle: UR Rise in Sep-18 Is Not Disinflationary

FLASH: Surprisingly Stable UK Inflation in Oct-18

UK Cycle: Up-Skilled Surge in Tight Labour Market Pay

FLASH: Hawkish UK Hours and Wages in Aug-18

FLASH: Disinflationary UK Surprise in Sep-18

Preview: UK Sep-18 Inflation and Aug Labour Market

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>Tuesday’s UK labour market report should reveal further good news on wage growth, but there is a risk of a temporary rise in the UR, which would offset that.</em></li>
<li><em>My UK inflation forecasts for Oct-18 are in line with the Consensus, but there are risks. CPI inflation is on the cusp of rounding higher after its latest disappointment while the RPI is even more precariously balanced but with a downside tilt instead.</em></li>
</ul>


Tuesday’s UK labour market report should reveal further good news on wage growth, but there is a risk of a temporary rise in the UR, which would offset that.
My UK inflation forecasts for Oct-18 are in line with the Consensus, but there are risks. CPI inflation is on the cusp of rounding higher after its latest disappointment while the RPI is even more precariously balanced but with a downside tilt instead.


Preview: UK Oct-18 Inflation and Q3 Labour Market