Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>US corporations are already planning for the arrival of a new business environment after COVID-19, but the timing and its exact structure will depend heavily on the success of vaccine rollouts. The pandemic has imparted deep wounds in some sectors of the economy that will impact companies for many years, thereby additionally forcing them to address lingering secular challenges.</p>
<p>Any additional short-term fiscal boost by the Biden Administration should be supportive for aggregate demand, but the overall impact will depend on being able to abolish social restrictions. Economic uncertainty still lingers due the unknown size of additional stimulus as well as the timing of its implementation due to the budget reconciliation process.</p>
<p>President Biden's economic agenda goes beyond short-term stimulus to embrace infrastructure programmes, corporate tax changes, and a potential resetting of trade relations with China. Companies with high foreign-sourced profits will experience the largest increase in their effective tax rate if corporation tax is raised to 28% from 21%.</p>
<div>Tougher regulations in the realm of climate change under the Biden Administration and the continued rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in asset allocation spell tougher times ahead for the oil and gas sectors, as well as automotive. Reducing US technology companies' reliance on China in their supply-chains cannot be remedied quickly, along with issues about intellectual property, thereby making a resetting of trade relations more complex. The health care sector does not face risks of regulatory reforms in the near-term, but the outlook could change if the number of uninsured Americans continues to rise as the economy recovers. </div>
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<p>The influence of ESG factors in asset allocation during the Biden Administration will continue to rise, given their importance in providing the plans to build a sustainable economic recovery. Mergers and acquisitions will feature prominently as companies respond to the challenges of new legislation, ESG-driven asset allocation affecting the cost of capital and secular changes to the business environment.</p>
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US corporations are already planning for the arrival of a new business environment after COVID-19, but the timing and its exact structure will depend heavily on the success of vaccine rollouts. The pandemic has imparted deep wounds in some sectors of the economy that will impact companies for many years, thereby additionally forcing them to address lingering secular challenges.
Any additional short-term fiscal boost by the Biden Administration should be supportive for aggregate demand, but the overall impact will depend on being able to abolish social restrictions. Economic uncertainty still lingers due the unknown size of additional stimulus as well as the timing of its implementation due to the budget reconciliation process.
President Biden's economic agenda goes beyond short-term stimulus to embrace infrastructure programmes, corporate tax changes, and a potential resetting of trade relations with China. Companies with high foreign-sourced profits will experience the largest increase in their effective tax rate if corporation tax is raised to 28% from 21%.
Tougher regulations in the realm of climate change under the Biden Administration and the continued rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in asset allocation spell tougher times ahead for the oil and gas sectors, as well as automotive. Reducing US technology companies' reliance on China in their supply-chains cannot be remedied quickly, along with issues about intellectual property, thereby making a resetting of trade relations more complex. The health care sector does not face risks of regulatory reforms in the near-term, but the outlook could change if the number of uninsured Americans continues to rise as the economy recovers. 


The influence of ESG factors in asset allocation during the Biden Administration will continue to rise, given their importance in providing the plans to build a sustainable economic recovery. Mergers and acquisitions will feature prominently as companies respond to the challenges of new legislation, ESG-driven asset allocation affecting the cost of capital and secular changes to the business environment.





Outlook for US Corporations: Greener Pastures Not Guaranteed Under Biden Administration Agenda