Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Even though the Santa rally in US STIRS has largely been reversed, markets are still pricing in 2.5 full cuts by the end of this year or so with the first to come around summer time.</li><li>Currently, one of the most unappreciated risks by markets would be the Fed actually hiking rates in 2024 and thus we thought we would present 6 compelling and thought provoking arguments for why the Fed hiking in 2024 might not be impossible after all (our base case is a hold).</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The first argument has to do with year-on-year inflation seemingly having reached its equilibrium at 3%, a range in which it has found itself for the last year or so.</span></li></ul>

Even though the Santa rally in US STIRS has largely been reversed, markets are still pricing in 2.5 full cuts by the end of this year or so with the first to come around summer time.Currently, one of the most unappreciated risks by markets would be the Fed actually hiking rates in 2024 and thus we thought we would present 6 compelling and thought provoking arguments for why the Fed hiking in 2024 might not be impossible after all (our base case is a hold).The first argument has to do with year-on-year inflation seemingly having reached its equilibrium at 3%, a range in which it has found itself for the last year or so.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC US)

2-Year US Treasury Note Futures (TU1 COMDTY)

Out of the Box: 6 Reasons the Fed Will Be Hiking Rates in 2024