Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Dowa Holdings Earnings in Line With Nikkei Preview, Zinc Prices Could Drive Stock if TCs Normalise

Sumitomo Metal Mining: Metal Price Recovery and Battery Material Growth Priced In; Upside Limited

Dowa Visit: Accelerating Silver Powder Growth, Higher Metal Prices Should Lift PE to Double Digits

Dowa Holdings 4Q Encouraging Across the Board, Lower Guidance than Nikkei Preview Looks Conservative

Zinc Prospects and Share Price Fall Make Dowa a Buy Again

Dowa Holdings: Lull in Share Price Performance Likely but We Expect Strong FY2018 on Zinc Price/JPY

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Consensus estimates are at JPY7.7bn for 1QFY03/18 and JPY7.3bn for 2QFY03/18 implying JPY15bn in OP for the 1H, in-line with company guidance. We believe 1Q OP could be as high as JPY12.0bn with 2Q OP at JPY9.2bn. In particular, we find the lack of seasonality in consensus quarterly estimates to be strange. Consensus is calling for a JPY0.4bn decrease in OP from 1Q to Q2 whereas the average decrease between FY03/10 and FY03/17 has been JPY2.8bn (with one instance of an increase of JPY1bn and all…</p>

Consensus estimates are at JPY7.7bn for 1QFY03/18 and JPY7.3bn for 2QFY03/18 implying JPY15bn in OP for the 1H, in-line with company guidance. We believe 1Q OP could be as high as JPY12.0bn with 2Q OP at JPY9.2bn. In particular, we find the lack of seasonality in consensus quarterly estimates to be strange. Consensus is calling for a JPY0.4bn decrease in OP from 1Q to Q2 whereas the average decrease between FY03/10 and FY03/17 has been JPY2.8bn (with one instance of an increase of JPY1bn and all…

Our Dowa Holdings 1Q Estimate Is 56% Above Consensus and Just 20% Below Co Guidance for Entire 1H