European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Otis/Zardoya Otis: Possibility of a Sweetened Offer

Otis/Zardoya Otis: Lifting the Minorities

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.opazardoyaotis.com/files/folleto-informativo-opa-zardoya-otis.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prospectus</a> approval, the acceptance period runs from 2 March until 1 April. Interloper risk is nil. Gross spread is a tiny 0.3%. Recommendation is <strong>long and tender</strong>.</li>
<li>I still consider the offer to be cheeky: it implies 22.3x Fwd P/E and 13.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below the median of comparables at 26.5x Fw P/E and 15.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA.</li>
<li>But the risks of not tendering are: share price dropping in the current Ukraine crisis context, reduced liquidity, and Otis may carry out a delisting if it reaches 75% acceptances.</li>
</ul>


After prospectus approval, the acceptance period runs from 2 March until 1 April. Interloper risk is nil. Gross spread is a tiny 0.3%. Recommendation is long and tender.
I still consider the offer to be cheeky: it implies 22.3x Fwd P/E and 13.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below the median of comparables at 26.5x Fw P/E and 15.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA.
But the risks of not tendering are: share price dropping in the current Ukraine crisis context, reduced liquidity, and Otis may carry out a delisting if it reaches 75% acceptances.


Zardoya Otis SA

Otis/Zardoya Otis: Game Almost Over