Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

The Growth of North Korean Refugees in South Korea

The Sixth Nuclear Weapons Test by North Korea - Implications (Biggest Global Geopolitical Risk?)

Geo-Political Risks: What Will North Korea's Provocations Lead To?

North Korea: More Sanctions but Not Enough to Change Its Strategy

Biggest Ever Economic Sanctions by the UN Against North Korea

China's Ban on North Korean Coal Imports to Aid Sea Borne Trade

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>There is no end-in-sight to the threat posed by North Korea’s rapid nuclearisation as neither President Trump’s fiery rhetoric nor UN sanctions have truly stopped the regime in its tracks. To compound the problem further, options to deal with North Korea are highly lacking for all parties involved.</li><li>We envision three possible scenarios that could ensue. <ul><li>The baseline scenario would see the US ramping up unilateral pressure on North Korea as well as China for its tacit support of the regime.</li><li>An alternative albeit unlikely scenario would see back-channelling between US and China in the hope that China would act decisively against North Korea.</li><li>In the last and most unlikely but also devastating scenario, miscalculations on the part of the US would lead to a full-scale war between the two adversaries.</li></ul></li></ul>

There is no end-in-sight to the threat posed by North Korea’s rapid nuclearisation as neither President Trump’s fiery rhetoric nor UN sanctions have truly stopped the regime in its tracks. To compound the problem further, options to deal with North Korea are highly lacking for all parties involved.We envision three possible scenarios that could ensue. The baseline scenario would see the US ramping up unilateral pressure on North Korea as well as China for its tacit support of the regime.An alternative albeit unlikely scenario would see back-channelling between US and China in the hope that China would act decisively against North Korea.In the last and most unlikely but also devastating scenario, miscalculations on the part of the US would lead to a full-scale war between the two adversaries.

North Korea's Standoff Against the US: No War, the Real Risk Is to US-China Relations