Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Roiling Politics and Reduced Liquidity Could End Resilient Markets

Sanctions Expanded on a Recalcitrant North Korea

North Korea's Standoff Against the US: No War, the Real Risk Is to US-China Relations

North Korea: More Sanctions but Not Enough to Change Its Strategy

Biggest Ever Economic Sanctions by the UN Against North Korea

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>North Korea is treading on dangerous territory with multiple military provocations ahead of an important BRICS summit hosted by China. Of note is the North Korean claim that it had perfected a hydrogen bomb with “unprecedentedly big power” that could be loaded onto an inter-continental ballistic missile.</li><li>The US response has been mixed – this may allow Kim to believe that his calculated gamble has paid off as the US appears to have a dearth of viable options to deal with North Korea. Yet, Kim is playing a dangerous game and could give US and China more incentive to take joint action against his regime.</li><li>Going forward, it is likely that North Korea takes advantage of the lack of focus among US and Chinese leadership to have more nuclear and missile tests and even test the South Korean response with a few small-scale provocations. The US and China could decide to work together to increase the cost to North Korea of its policies, failing which the US could decide to ramp up pressure on China to cut fuel supplies to North Korea through progressively more painful trade measures in various areas.</li></ul>

North Korea is treading on dangerous territory with multiple military provocations ahead of an important BRICS summit hosted by China. Of note is the North Korean claim that it had perfected a hydrogen bomb with “unprecedentedly big power” that could be loaded onto an inter-continental ballistic missile.The US response has been mixed – this may allow Kim to believe that his calculated gamble has paid off as the US appears to have a dearth of viable options to deal with North Korea. Yet, Kim is playing a dangerous game and could give US and China more incentive to take joint action against his regime.Going forward, it is likely that North Korea takes advantage of the lack of focus among US and Chinese leadership to have more nuclear and missile tests and even test the South Korean response with a few small-scale provocations. The US and China could decide to work together to increase the cost to North Korea of its policies, failing which the US could decide to ramp up pressure on China to cut fuel supplies to North Korea through progressively more painful trade measures in various areas.

Geo-Political Risks: What Will North Korea's Provocations Lead To?