Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Noble Group: Official Debt Restructuring In Motion Part I

Noble Group: Official Debt Restructuring In Motion Part II

Noble Group Garage Sale Means a Smaller Business; FVE Lowered to SGD 0.48

Noble Gets a Temporary Debt Reprieve, Our View Unchanged

Asia ex-Japan Credit - Analyst, Bondcritic

Brayan Lai

Asia ex-Japan Credit - Analyst

Credit

<p>Noble Group (Noble), the embattled commodity trader and supply-chain manager, has been on a mission to reinvent itself for many years since it embarked on its "asset-light" strategy. This has been exacerbated by a structural downturn in commodity markets. That said, Noble has been a criticism target of a major short-seller and its own creditors in recent years.</p><p>Despite its fragile situation, we think the company will undergo a soft restructuring and we believe it should successfully settle its short-term debt by novation, renegotiation (with or without collateral) and a liability management exercise. At the crux of our investment thesis is the recovery value which forms the basis of our credit valuation and justification that the company has a reasonable survival probability. On an unsecured basis - our expected 58% base case recovery value should cap any major downside price movement.</p>

Noble Group (Noble), the embattled commodity trader and supply-chain manager, has been on a mission to reinvent itself for many years since it embarked on its "asset-light" strategy. This has been exacerbated by a structural downturn in commodity markets. That said, Noble has been a criticism target of a major short-seller and its own creditors in recent years.Despite its fragile situation, we think the company will undergo a soft restructuring and we believe it should successfully settle its short-term debt by novation, renegotiation (with or without collateral) and a liability management exercise. At the crux of our investment thesis is the recovery value which forms the basis of our credit valuation and justification that the company has a reasonable survival probability. On an unsecured basis - our expected 58% base case recovery value should cap any major downside price movement.

Noble Group Ltd

Noble Group: "I Will Survive"