Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Over 20 years experience in equities and asset management in Asia and Japan. Qualified CFA with experience analyzing companies as a buy-side analyst. In-depth knowledge of company fundamental analysis, corporate governance and valuations.

Nintendo (7974)| Nintendo: Switch 2 Can’t Come Soon Enough

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tariff Headwinds: U.S. import tariffs could wipe out hardware margins, potentially costing Nintendo up to ¥95bn in FY3/26 gross profit.</li>
<li>Guidance Risk: With bullish consensus expecting ¥450bn in FY3/26 operating profit, upcoming guidance on July 5 may significantly disappoint.</li>
<li>Valuation Hinges on Recovery: FY3/27 earnings could rebound to ¥600bn if cycle normalises and tariff risks ease—implying a fair 13x EV/EBIT multiple.</li>
</ul>


Tariff Headwinds: U.S. import tariffs could wipe out hardware margins, potentially costing Nintendo up to ¥95bn in FY3/26 gross profit.
Guidance Risk: With bullish consensus expecting ¥450bn in FY3/26 operating profit, upcoming guidance on July 5 may significantly disappoint.
Valuation Hinges on Recovery: FY3/27 earnings could rebound to ¥600bn if cycle normalises and tariff risks ease—implying a fair 13x EV/EBIT multiple.


Nintendo (7974) | Next-Gen Switch 2 Meets Next-Level Margin Risk