Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Highly experienced ex-Delta One trader with 17 years of experience trading arbitrage and related strategies across Asian markets.

Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd.

It is important to note that the information provided by Periscope Analytics is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and synthesized from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions.

All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include, but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, ETF and other passive investment vehicle holdings, and free float and volume data from third-party data providers. Periscope Analytics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates and/or other information.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Nikkei225 Dividend Futures: Trading Near Our Bull Case

Nikkei225 Dividend Futures: The Easy Gains Have Been Made

Nikkei 225 Dividend Futures: Buy The Selloff

Quantitative Analysis

Japan Industrials / Quantitative Analysis

With the bulk of the dividends for 2020 announced and guidance provided for the rest of the year by most constituent companies, the Nikkei225 2020 dividend futures have little upside and a bit more downside from the current trading level of 400 index points. From the time we published our last <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei225-dividend-futures-trading-near-our-bull-case" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insight</a> highlighting that the dividend futures were trading near our bull case, the market is 10 points lower.The 2020 dividend futures briefly rallied on hopes of a special dividend from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a>, but has come off again. With companies having announced their quarterly results and guidance, the focus now shifts to the 2021 dividend futures.At current levels, we do not see any significant opportunity on the 2021 div futures. However, we provide estimates for our bear case, base case and bull case scenarios that can be used to enter/exit positions on moves in the dividend futures due to large changes in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>, in macroeconomic indicators, and/or hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine.

With the bulk of the dividends for 2020 announced and guidance provided for the rest of the year by most constituent companies, the Nikkei225 2020 dividend futures have little upside and a bit more downside from the current trading level of 400 index points. From the time we published our last Insight highlighting that the dividend futures were trading near our bull case, the market is 10 points lower.The 2020 dividend futures briefly rallied on hopes of a special dividend from FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP), but has come off again. With companies having announced their quarterly results and guidance, the focus now shifts to the 2021 dividend futures.At current levels, we do not see any significant opportunity on the 2021 div futures. However, we provide estimates for our bear case, base case and bull case scenarios that can be used to enter/exit positions on moves in the dividend futures due to large changes in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), in macroeconomic indicators, and/or hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Nikkei225 Dividend Futures: Focus Shifts to 2021