Mytilineos - Renewables to drive EBITDA above €1bn/year

We are raising our earnings estimates for Mytilineos and increasing our valuation 29% from €28/share to €36/share. Cyclical factors helped earnings acceleration in 2022, but we see underlying organic growth (particularly in Energy) resetting earnings to €1bn/year from FY24. Mytilineos is simplifying its story around two key activities in a roughly 70/30 earnings mix: Energy (renewables, generation and natural gas supply) and Metallurgy (aluminium smelting). Its renewables business is particularly well positioned to benefit from European policy initiatives.