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Equity Bottom-Up

Mytilineos Holdings Sa / Equity Bottom-Up

Metlen Energy & Metals achieved a record H1 EBITDA of €474m in 2024 (vs €437m in H123), while also increasing its operating margin by 169bp to 19.1% (17.4% at H123). Revenue declined marginally (-1% to €2,482m) but Metlen’s diversified and synergistic business model across the energy and metals sectors is helping to grow its margins and diversity of earnings (towards RES/Utility/Metals and away from volatile natural gas supply). Both net profit after minorities and earnings per share increased by c 5% y-o-y to €282m and €2.04, respectively. Net debt/EBITDA is a comfortable 1.76x and Metlen looks well placed for a potential upgrade to investment grade status by the rating agencies later this year, achieving its goal.

Metlen Energy & Metals achieved a record H1 EBITDA of €474m in 2024 (vs €437m in H123), while also increasing its operating margin by 169bp to 19.1% (17.4% at H123). Revenue declined marginally (-1% to €2,482m) but Metlen’s diversified and synergistic business model across the energy and metals sectors is helping to grow its margins and diversity of earnings (towards RES/Utility/Metals and away from volatile natural gas supply). Both net profit after minorities and earnings per share increased by c 5% y-o-y to €282m and €2.04, respectively. Net debt/EBITDA is a comfortable 1.76x and Metlen looks well placed for a potential upgrade to investment grade status by the rating agencies later this year, achieving its goal.

Metlen Energy & Metals - Strengthening operating margin in H1

Mytilineos recently announced a company name change to Metlen Energy & Metals. The decision to rebrand is in line with its strategy of establishing a strong international identity. It also confirmed its intention to examine an international listing, including on the London Stock Exchange. We profile Metlen and examine how it could look in the context of an LSE listing. It would rank c 90th in the LSE’s largest index firms on market capitalisation and c 50th based on earnings, indicating potential re-rating upside. Metlen is a c€5bn market capitalisation firm listed in Athens with two core pillars: an integrated Energy business (power generation and distribution, a high-growth renewables business and gas supply and trading) and Metals (Europe’s largest integrated bauxite, alumina and aluminium producer).

Mytilineos recently announced a company name change to Metlen Energy & Metals. The decision to rebrand is in line with its strategy of establishing a strong international identity. It also confirmed its intention to examine an international listing, including on the London Stock Exchange. We profile Metlen and examine how it could look in the context of an LSE listing. It would rank c 90th in the LSE’s largest index firms on market capitalisation and c 50th based on earnings, indicating potential re-rating upside. Metlen is a c€5bn market capitalisation firm listed in Athens with two core pillars: an integrated Energy business (power generation and distribution, a high-growth renewables business and gas supply and trading) and Metals (Europe’s largest integrated bauxite, alumina and aluminium producer). 

Metlen Energy & Metals - A new name for its next phase

On April 25, Mytilineos (MYTIL) announced, as part of its strategic review, that it is considering a potential international listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) within the next 12–18 months. Listing on the LSE would demonstrate a strong vote of confidence by MYTIL in the UK market and aligns with its international growth ambitions, allowing the company to leverage its geographically diverse portfolio of operations. It would provide greater liquidity for investors and enable MYTIL to continue to expand its global presence. While pursuing an LSE listing, MYTIL will retain its listing on the Athens Exchange, demonstrating its ongoing commitment to contributing to the Greek economy, while also acting as an ambassador for Greece in the UK.

On April 25, Mytilineos (MYTIL) announced, as part of its strategic review, that it is considering a potential international listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) within the next 12–18 months. Listing on the LSE would demonstrate a strong vote of confidence by MYTIL in the UK market and aligns with its international growth ambitions, allowing the company to leverage its geographically diverse portfolio of operations. It would provide greater liquidity for investors and enable MYTIL to continue to expand its global presence. While pursuing an LSE listing, MYTIL will retain its listing on the Athens Exchange, demonstrating its ongoing commitment to contributing to the Greek economy, while also acting as an ambassador for Greece in the UK.

Mytilineos - Strong Q1 and plans for potential London listing

Mytilineos (MYTIL) is continuing to deliver on its transformation into a simpler structure based on two pillars, Energy and Metals. Its strategy is focused on realising synergies in the group and building its renewable energy sources (RES) business, with its existing industrial assets providing a solid platform for growth. In our view, €1bn/year in EBITDA looks achievable in FY23 and would reset earnings at a higher level. We are increasing our valuation from €36/share to €45/share, in part due to the growth of its RES business, partly funded by its asset rotation strategy.

Mytilineos (MYTIL) is continuing to deliver on its transformation into a simpler structure based on two pillars, Energy and Metals. Its strategy is focused on realising synergies in the group and building its renewable energy sources (RES) business, with its existing industrial assets providing a solid platform for growth. In our view, €1bn/year in EBITDA looks achievable in FY23 and would reset earnings at a higher level. We are increasing our valuation from €36/share to €45/share, in part due to the growth of its RES business, partly funded by its asset rotation strategy.

Mytilineos - Synergies and solar delivering growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

Greece

Mytilineos Holdings S.A. is an industrial group and an independent energy producer. The Company's activities include aluminum and base metals production, energy and infrastructure projects construction, production of thermal power and supply and trade of natural gas.

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Mytilineos Holdings Sa (MYTIL GA)

Metlen Energy & Metals - Strengthening operating margin in H1

Metlen Energy & Metals achieved a record H1 EBITDA of €474m in 2024 (vs €437m in H123), while also increasing its operating margin by 169bp to...

Edison Investment Research

Metlen Energy & Metals - A new name for its next phase

Mytilineos recently announced a company name change to Metlen Energy & Metals. The decision to rebrand is in line with its strategy of...

Edison Investment Research

Mytilineos - Strong Q1 and plans for potential London listing

On April 25, Mytilineos (MYTIL) announced, as part of its strategic review, that it is considering a potential international listing on the London...

Edison Investment Research

Mytilineos - Synergies and solar delivering growth

Mytilineos (MYTIL) is continuing to deliver on its transformation into a simpler structure based on two pillars, Energy and Metals. Its strategy is...

Edison Investment Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

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