Offshore USD Liquidity Squeeze to Intensify Pressure on EMs & Defer EUR Rally

Senior Macro Strategist, TS Lombard

Martin Shenfield

Senior Macro Strategist

Research covering economic, politics & markets

TS Lombard

TS Lombard is the new research group formed through the merger of Lombard Street Research and Trusted Sources in August 2016. The merger has brought together two of the leading, and longest established, IRPs to create a unique offering combining best-in-breed macroeconomic forecasting and political and policy analysis. The group has a team of 25 analysts and strategists across offices in London, New York, Hong Kong, Beijing, Sao Paulo and New Delhi. 

LSR was founded in 1989 to produce UK economic forecasts. Services now include global macro analysis and forecasting,  in depth China coverage, proprietary indicators and models, asset allocation recommendations and tactical trading ideas. LSR ranked above BCA for the first time in the 2016 Extel survey of buy-side investors. 

Trusted Sources was founded in 2006 to provide political risk coverage of BRIC economies. Services now include country political risk coverage, in depth China policy coverage, MENA coverage, LatAm coverage, South East Asia coverage and asset allocation and tactical trading ideas. 

Core research capabilities: 
The framework combines macroeconomic forecasts with political and policy analysis to enable investors to make more fully informed allocations. TS Lombard encourages interaction with their team through on-site meetings and calls, conference calls, video presentations, lunches and conferences.  The group provides tailored services through client-specific combinations of research reports (daily, weekly, fortnightly, monthly and quarterly as appropriate) including: 

China In Depth
LSR Daily Note
LSR View
Macro Picture
Asset Allocation
Macro Strategy
Country Policy/Political Notes
EM Strategy Monthly
EM Absolute Views

Geographic coverage and strategies:
Developed Markets (USA, Europe, UK, Japan), Emerging Markets (China, India, SE Asia, LatAm, MENA, Russia), Strategies (Asset Allocation (6 months), Tactical Trade ideas (6-12 weeks)). 


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Global financing conditions could tighten further</li>
<li>Credit demand is deteriorating; credit risks are rising; Eurodollar costs are edging higher</li>
<li>A de-escalation in trade tensions and a Fed pause could ease the pain</li>
<li>Will Fed recently turning more dovish (possible shift to slower QT &amp; Fed rate cut in 2019?) + concomitant USD drift provide sufficient respite to put a floor under risk assets?</li>
</ul>


Global financing conditions could tighten further
Credit demand is deteriorating; credit risks are rising; Eurodollar costs are edging higher
A de-escalation in trade tensions and a Fed pause could ease the pain
Will Fed recently turning more dovish (possible shift to slower QT &amp; Fed rate cut in 2019?) + concomitant USD drift provide sufficient respite to put a floor under risk assets?


Much Ado About Credit