Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​10 Mitsui High-Tech, Kamakura S

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​09 It's a Silver Life, Tanseisha

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

On Dec. 10, Campbell Gunn wrote in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-results-revisions-12-10-mitsui-high-tech-kamakura-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46245" rel="noopener">🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results &amp; Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​10 Mitsui High-Tech, Kamakura S</a> , that Mitsui High-tec shares have risen by 78% over the last six months and are trading at a twenty-year Relative Price Score high. Although not Overbought, the lack of a valuation margin of safety leads us to recommend taking profits into any post-results bounce.On Dec. 11, they "bounced" - on new and favorable guidance, going stop-high in the first hour of trading and finishing the day up 17%, at a 20-year high. The shares are now selling at 66x management's EPS guidance for FY Jan-21 and 24x an EPS estimate for FY Jan-24 derived from management's operating profit target.Whether or not management's medium-term sales and profit targets are reasonable - or, rather, simply "best-effort" targets - might not be known for a year or more. But three years of above average growth are now being discounted.

On Dec. 10, Campbell Gunn wrote in 🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results &amp; Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​10 Mitsui High-Tech, Kamakura S , that Mitsui High-tec shares have risen by 78% over the last six months and are trading at a twenty-year Relative Price Score high. Although not Overbought, the lack of a valuation margin of safety leads us to recommend taking profits into any post-results bounce.On Dec. 11, they "bounced" - on new and favorable guidance, going stop-high in the first hour of trading and finishing the day up 17%, at a 20-year high. The shares are now selling at 66x management's EPS guidance for FY Jan-21 and 24x an EPS estimate for FY Jan-24 derived from management's operating profit target.Whether or not management's medium-term sales and profit targets are reasonable - or, rather, simply "best-effort" targets - might not be known for a year or more. But three years of above average growth are now being discounted.

Mitsui High-Tec (6966): Limit up on New Guidance, Sell into Strength

Mitsui High Tec

Mitsui High-Tec (6966): Limit up on New Guidance, Sell into Strength