Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Metlifecare: Preparing For A Protracted Legal Stoush

Metlifecare: EQT Blinks And Tables A Revised Offer

Metlifecare/EQT: Avoiding Contractual Obligations

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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Back on the 8 April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metlifecare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19219:1" rel="noopener">Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ)</a>  <a href="http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/351464/320564.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had received notice of an intention to terminate its SIA with APVG/EQT.
APVG/EQT argued that COVID-19 would "reasonably likely to reduce the consolidated underlying net profit (as described in the MAC clause) of Metlifecare by at least 10% in FY20", triggering the MAC.
Metlifecare responded that it was seeking legal advice on the termination, and asserted the MAC trigger was without substance.
Further NZX announcements have been released by Metlifecare as it lawyered up, with a High Court date set (<a href="https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352813" target="_blank" rel="noopener">28 May</a>) for considering its application for initial orders to call a meeting of shareholders to vote on the scheme plan contemplated by the SIA.
Justice Graham Lang (presiding) may allow the dispatch of Scheme documents and the meeting to go ahead. It is possible for EQT to appeal but an appeal is not an automatic stay – that is, the Scheme process can continue throughout an appeal process until a judge issues a stop order.
Currently trading 9% below its undisturbed price (20 Nov 2019), but 24% up from its 8 April low, when I last wrote on the company (<a href="https://skr.ma/R6uin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Metlifecare's Options As EQT Walks</a>), recommending a buy. There would be ~61% upside to the NZ$7/share Offer price.
I think MET has a strong chance the Scheme Meeting goes ahead.  That would not guarantee the deal goes through, but I would be long here. 
As always, more thoughts below the line.
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Back on the 8 April, Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ)  announced it had received notice of an intention to terminate its SIA with APVG/EQT.
APVG/EQT argued that COVID-19 would "reasonably likely to reduce the consolidated underlying net profit (as described in the MAC clause) of Metlifecare by at least 10% in FY20", triggering the MAC.
Metlifecare responded that it was seeking legal advice on the termination, and asserted the MAC trigger was without substance.
Further NZX announcements have been released by Metlifecare as it lawyered up, with a High Court date set (28 May) for considering its application for initial orders to call a meeting of shareholders to vote on the scheme plan contemplated by the SIA.
Justice Graham Lang (presiding) may allow the dispatch of Scheme documents and the meeting to go ahead. It is possible for EQT to appeal but an appeal is not an automatic stay – that is, the Scheme process can continue throughout an appeal process until a judge issues a stop order.
Currently trading 9% below its undisturbed price (20 Nov 2019), but 24% up from its 8 April low, when I last wrote on the company (Metlifecare's Options As EQT Walks), recommending a buy. There would be ~61% upside to the NZ$7/share Offer price.
I think MET has a strong chance the Scheme Meeting goes ahead.  That would not guarantee the deal goes through, but I would be long here. 
As always, more thoughts below the line.





Metlifecare Ltd

Metlifecare: Down But Not Out - Get Long