Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Mercari – Problems, Problems, But We Are Getting Bulled Up Anyway

Mercari (4385) - End-July TOPIX Inclusion Update

2022 High Conviction – Plenty of Growth Avenues for Mercari, the Apple of CtoC Services

Mercari – US GMV Is Downside Risk but Profitability Is a Larger Upside Risk

Mercari (4385) Applying for TSE Prime Means TOPIX Inclusion in 4-5 Months

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We got this wrong, expecting a beat on margins in spite of weak GMV, whereas Mercari actually fell into the red for the first time in six quarters. </li>
<li>The culprit is extremely aggressive promotional spend which looks to have hit all time highs in both Japan and the US. </li>
<li>The shift to an investment stance is not in and of itself a bad thing but the growth relative to the spend is disappointing so far.</li>
</ul>


We got this wrong, expecting a beat on margins in spite of weak GMV, whereas Mercari actually fell into the red for the first time in six quarters. 
The culprit is extremely aggressive promotional spend which looks to have hit all time highs in both Japan and the US. 
The shift to an investment stance is not in and of itself a bad thing but the growth relative to the spend is disappointing so far.


Mercari

Mercari – Margin Miss Not Beat