Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Pranav Bhavsar & the team at India Independent Insight (Iii), provide research on consumer companies operating or have exposure to in India. The research methodology focuses on carrying out on-the-ground channel surveillance/checks that include supplier/distributor/customer interactions, access to industry experts, and bespoke primary data sources that aid in providing unique insights and counter consensus ideas.  

Leveraging the team's forensic analysis along with channel surveillance, the team at Iii also aids investors in early identification of changing consumer trends, identification and quantification of accounting/governance risks, and the associated impact on the business model of the company.

Pranav has over 15 years of experience in the Indian equity market, and has worked with some of the global activists, long only and PE funds for their India projects. Prior roles also include building and leading an institutional sell-side desk. In his free time, Pranav is a traveler, biker, and a young Indian contributing to the country’s social and economic development.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Maruti Suzuki Q3FY20 Review: Buy – Signs of Headwinds Easing & Early BS-VI Adoption Augur Well

India Channel Insight | Maruti, PVR, Inox, CAMS, Marico

India Channel Insight | Maruti, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Eicher, Ola Electric

Winds of Change | Ground Checks Suggest Multiple Headwinds Still in Sight for Maruti (MSIL IN)

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We visited three dealers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> in Hyderabad with an objective to understand post-festival demand scenario and estimate a possible volume outlook for Q4 and FY2021.</p>
<div style="text-align: start;">For MSIL, consensus growth expectations on earnings seem to be factoring in a sharp recovery in FY21, which the current checks do not seem to indicate. Therefore there is a high probability of consensus estimates being highly optimistic especially considering the current demand environment and hence the volume recovery in Q3 could remain short-lived. </div>
<div style="text-align: start;"></div>
<div style="text-align: start;" class="content-highlight"><em>This insight is labelled bearish as we do not expect double-digit growth in the near term along a high probability of consensus estimates not being met. Additional checks in rural &amp; multiple locations could lead to deeper insights. </em></div>

We visited three dealers of Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) in Hyderabad with an objective to understand post-festival demand scenario and estimate a possible volume outlook for Q4 and FY2021.
For MSIL, consensus growth expectations on earnings seem to be factoring in a sharp recovery in FY21, which the current checks do not seem to indicate. Therefore there is a high probability of consensus estimates being highly optimistic especially considering the current demand environment and hence the volume recovery in Q3 could remain short-lived. 

This insight is labelled bearish as we do not expect double-digit growth in the near term along a high probability of consensus estimates not being met. Additional checks in rural &amp; multiple locations could lead to deeper insights. 

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL IN) | Volume Recovery Could Remain Short-Lived