Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Labour Market Slack Remains but FOMC Will Need to Tighten by Mid-2021

Trump Vs Biden Set 7 Months in Advance: Recession Aids Biden; Dirt Will Fly His Way

Recession Will Worsen This Quarter & Last into 3Q 2020 Despite Huge Fiscal Stimulus

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

The spectacular manufacturing rebound in June 2020, and the record 4.8 million net increase in non-farm payrolls, suggest that the recession will not last beyond 1H 2020. President Trump is very far behind in the polls -- nationally, in all the swing states, and even some traditional Republican ones like Arizona and North Carolina. He will likely narrow the gap in the next four months, but is unlikely to be able to close it. At this stage, the probability of the Democrats controlling House, Senate and the Presidency in 2021 is high -- a net positive for effective policy implementation in the US, although negative for key industries like oil, pharmaceuticals and tobacco that the Democrats will legislate against. The election is far from over, although the polls show Trump further behind at the end of June than any incumbent President has been in the past 72 years. In the four latest nationwide polls, Biden is 8 (in two polls), 9 and 12 percentage points ahead of Trump. Biden is far ahead in the swing states of Pennsylvania (+6), Michigan (+5), Wisconsin (+8) and Florida (+5), and also leads in reliable Republican states like Arizona (+7) and North Carolina (+7 in one poll, +1 in another). Unless his running-mate is rejected completely by the electorate, Biden will be US president in January 2021. On Biden's coat-tails, Democrats are leading in most of the key Senatorial contests this year, raising the clear possibility that the Democrats will control both the legislative and executive branches of government in 2021, providing for far more cohesive governance.  For the second consecutive month, US non-farm payrolls (NFP) surprised significantly to the upside, posting a net gain of 4.8 million in June 2020 (the largest-ever monthly increase, and far ahead of the consensus expectation of 2.9 million). The unemployment rate eased further to 11.1% in June 2020, although this was still higher than the peak unemployment rate during the 2008-09 Great Recession. The momentum of the recovery is clear, and real GDP is unlikely to contract in 3Q 2020 (the severity of the recession being confined to 1H 2020). However, with the US Covid curve of new cases steepening since mid-June 2020, a full reopening of the economy will be beset by delays. Private consumption is, therefore, likely to remain relatively sluggish in its recovery, so that the gains in the economy prove insufficient to generate a turnaround in the incumbent president's electoral prospects. However, as the slack in the labour market begins to get eliminated by March 2021, price pressures will re-emerge and we continue to expect the FOMC to be obliged to begin tightening monetary conditions in 1Q 2021, and to raise the Fed Funds rate by mid-2021.

The spectacular manufacturing rebound in June 2020, and the record 4.8 million net increase in non-farm payrolls, suggest that the recession will not last beyond 1H 2020. President Trump is very far behind in the polls -- nationally, in all the swing states, and even some traditional Republican ones like Arizona and North Carolina. He will likely narrow the gap in the next four months, but is unlikely to be able to close it. At this stage, the probability of the Democrats controlling House, Senate and the Presidency in 2021 is high -- a net positive for effective policy implementation in the US, although negative for key industries like oil, pharmaceuticals and tobacco that the Democrats will legislate against. The election is far from over, although the polls show Trump further behind at the end of June than any incumbent President has been in the past 72 years. In the four latest nationwide polls, Biden is 8 (in two polls), 9 and 12 percentage points ahead of Trump. Biden is far ahead in the swing states of Pennsylvania (+6), Michigan (+5), Wisconsin (+8) and Florida (+5), and also leads in reliable Republican states like Arizona (+7) and North Carolina (+7 in one poll, +1 in another). Unless his running-mate is rejected completely by the electorate, Biden will be US president in January 2021. On Biden's coat-tails, Democrats are leading in most of the key Senatorial contests this year, raising the clear possibility that the Democrats will control both the legislative and executive branches of government in 2021, providing for far more cohesive governance.  For the second consecutive month, US non-farm payrolls (NFP) surprised significantly to the upside, posting a net gain of 4.8 million in June 2020 (the largest-ever monthly increase, and far ahead of the consensus expectation of 2.9 million). The unemployment rate eased further to 11.1% in June 2020, although this was still higher than the peak unemployment rate during the 2008-09 Great Recession. The momentum of the recovery is clear, and real GDP is unlikely to contract in 3Q 2020 (the severity of the recession being confined to 1H 2020). However, with the US Covid curve of new cases steepening since mid-June 2020, a full reopening of the economy will be beset by delays. Private consumption is, therefore, likely to remain relatively sluggish in its recovery, so that the gains in the economy prove insufficient to generate a turnaround in the incumbent president's electoral prospects. However, as the slack in the labour market begins to get eliminated by March 2021, price pressures will re-emerge and we continue to expect the FOMC to be obliged to begin tightening monetary conditions in 1Q 2021, and to raise the Fed Funds rate by mid-2021.  

Manufacturing & NFP Rebound in June, but Trump's Poll Numbers Are in the Doldrums