Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst with experience in fundamental and event-driven research in Frontier and Emerging markets. 

On Smartkarma, I mainly publish insights on index flow events in the Asia-Pacific region. This includes predicting regular and intra-review index changes and estimating upcoming passive flows. I also cover special situations such as mergers & acquisitions, equity offerings, buybacks, and other corporate restructuring events.

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Mainstream (MAI AU): +120% in ~2 Months but Bidding War Continues...

Mainstream (MAI AU): Apex on Top Again as Bidding War Continues...

Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&C to Bump

Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye!

Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd / Event-Driven

<p>A couple of months ago, on 9th March 2021, Australia-based third party fund administration services provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mainstream-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30611:1" rel="noopener">Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU)</a> received a bid from Hong Kong-headquartered Vistra at A$1.20/share. Since then multiple competing bidders including US-based financial technology firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">SS&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> and Global Fund Administrator <a href="https://www.theapexgroup.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Group Limited</a> have gotten involved in a bidding war causing the Terms to more than double in less than 2 months.</p><p>Between 09th March and 29th April, I maintained a Bullish stance on the situation and saw MAI shares rise from A$1.23 to A$2.65 during that period. </p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2px;"><h3>Date</h3></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 159.2px;"><h3>Insight Title</h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2px;"><strong>9-Mar-21</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 628.8px;"><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-group-mai-au-go-shop-provision-makes-it-interesting" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48962" rel="noopener">Mainstream Group (MAI AU): Go-Shop Provision Makes It Interesting</a> </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2px;"></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 628.8px;"><em>On 12th April, US-based financial technology company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> launched a competing bid at A$2.00/share (a 66.7% increase from Vistra's A$1.20). </em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2px;"><strong>15-Apr-21</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 628.8px;"><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-massive-overbid-by-ss-c-now-vistra-has-to-respond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50366" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): Massive Overbid by SS&amp;C, Now Vistra Has to Respond</a> </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2px;"></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 628.8px;"><em>MAI received a bid at A$2.20/share from an unidentified 3rd party party and SS&amp;C bumped their bid to A$2.25/share on 27th April 2021. </em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2px;"><strong>27-Apr-21</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 628.8px;"><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-more-competition-forces-ss-c-to-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50762" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&amp;C to Bump</a> </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2px;"></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 628.8px;"><p><em>After the close on 28th April, Global Fund Administrator <a href="https://www.theapexgroup.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Group Limited</a> (Apex) launched a non-binding bid at A$2.35/share and MAI matched this bid.</em> </p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2px;"><strong>29-Apr-21</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 628.8px;"><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-three-in-a-row-bullseye" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50761" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye!</a></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2px;"></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 628.8px;"><p><em>Apex <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02369747-2A1295495?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> their bid to A$2.55/share on 30th April 2021. </em></p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/204/630/original/Screenshot+2021-05-06+at+3.23.23+PM.png?1620285823" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="204630"></figure><p></p></section><p>On 2nd May, I turned Bearish on the situation claiming that "<em>as a Bump Option, this is not as attractive as the previous four instances</em>" (in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-more-than-double-in-less-than-2-months-after-apex-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50950" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump</a>) and since then MAI shares have dipped from A$2.65 to A$2.56 (as of yesterday's close).   </p><p>Today, SS&amp;C <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372009-2A1296693?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exercised their matching right</a> and raised their bid to A$2.56/share. </p><div><p><em>More below the fold. </em></p></div><hr><div><div><div class="content-remarks"><p>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-australia-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30118" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-m-a-australia-foreign-investment-reforms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40210" rel="noopener">Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms</a></p></div></div></div>

A couple of months ago, on 9th March 2021, Australia-based third party fund administration services provider Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) received a bid from Hong Kong-headquartered Vistra at A$1.20/share. Since then multiple competing bidders including US-based financial technology firm SS&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) and Global Fund Administrator Apex Group Limited have gotten involved in a bidding war causing the Terms to more than double in less than 2 months.Between 09th March and 29th April, I maintained a Bullish stance on the situation and saw MAI shares rise from A$1.23 to A$2.65 during that period. 

Date
Insight Title


9-Mar-21
Mainstream Group (MAI AU): Go-Shop Provision Makes It Interesting 



On 12th April, US-based financial technology company Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) launched a competing bid at A$2.00/share (a 66.7% increase from Vistra's A$1.20). 


15-Apr-21
Mainstream (MAI AU): Massive Overbid by SS&amp;C, Now Vistra Has to Respond 



MAI received a bid at A$2.20/share from an unidentified 3rd party party and SS&amp;C bumped their bid to A$2.25/share on 27th April 2021. 


27-Apr-21
Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&amp;C to Bump 



After the close on 28th April, Global Fund Administrator Apex Group Limited (Apex) launched a non-binding bid at A$2.35/share and MAI matched this bid. 


29-Apr-21
Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye!



Apex bumped their bid to A$2.55/share on 30th April 2021. 

On 2nd May, I turned Bearish on the situation claiming that "as a Bump Option, this is not as attractive as the previous four instances" (in Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump) and since then MAI shares have dipped from A$2.65 to A$2.56 (as of yesterday's close).   Today, SS&amp;C exercised their matching right and raised their bid to A$2.56/share. More below the fold. For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 and Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms

Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&C Overbids for the 4th Time