Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst with experience in fundamental and event-driven research in Frontier and Emerging markets. 

On Smartkarma, I mainly publish insights on index flow events in the Asia-Pacific region. This includes predicting regular and intra-review index changes and estimating upcoming passive flows. I also cover special situations such as mergers & acquisitions, equity offerings, buybacks, and other corporate restructuring events.

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Mainstream (MAI AU): Apex on Top Again as Bidding War Continues...

Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye!

Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump

Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&C Overbids for the 4th Time

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd / Event-Driven

<p>Australia-based third party fund administration services provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mainstream-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30611:1" rel="noopener">Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU)</a> has seen its share price increase by more than 120% in little over two months. </p><p>It all started when Hong Kong-headquartered Vistra launched a bid at A$1.20/share on 9th March 2021. Since then, multiple competitive bidders have got involved as described in my following insights. </p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"><h3>Date</h3></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;"><h3>Insight Title</h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"><strong>9-Mar-21</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;"><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-group-mai-au-go-shop-provision-makes-it-interesting" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48962" rel="noopener">Mainstream Group (MAI AU): Go-Shop Provision Makes It Interesting</a> </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;">On 12th April, US-based financial technology company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> launched a competing bid at A$2.00/share (a 66.7% increase from Vistra's A$1.20). </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"><strong>15-Apr-21</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;"><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-massive-overbid-by-ss-c-now-vistra-has-to-respond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50366" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): Massive Overbid by SS&amp;C, Now Vistra Has to Respond</a> </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;">MAI received a bid at A$2.20/share from an unidentified 3rd party party and SS&amp;C bumped their bid to A$2.25/share on 27th April 2021. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"><strong>27-Apr-21</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;"><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-more-competition-forces-ss-c-to-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50762" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&amp;C to Bump</a> </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;"><p>After the close on 28th April, Global Fund Administrator <a href="https://www.theapexgroup.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Group Limited</a> (Apex) launched a non-binding bid at A$2.35/share and MAI matched this bid. </p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"><strong>29-Apr-21</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;"><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-three-in-a-row-bullseye" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50761" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye!</a></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;"><p>Apex <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02369747-2A1295495?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> their bid to A$2.55/share on 30th April 2021. </p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"><strong>2-May-21</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;"><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-more-than-double-in-less-than-2-months-after-apex-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50950" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump</a>)  </strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;"><p>I turned Bearish on the situation claiming that "<em>as a Bump Option, this is not as attractive as the previous four instances</em>". MAI AU shares dipped from A$2.65 on May 2nd to A$2.56 on May 6th and SS&amp;C <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372009-2A1296693?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exercised their matching right</a> and raised their bid to A$2.56/share. </p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"><strong>6-May-21</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 607px;"><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainstream-mai-au-bidding-war-continues-as-ss-c-overbids-for-the-4th-time" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51146" rel="noopener">Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&amp;C Overbids for the 4th Time</a> </strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75px;"></td>
<td colspan="2"><p>Apex raised their bid to A$2.60/share. </p></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 75px;"><div class="content-remarks"><p style="text-align: center;"><em>The timing of these insights and the subsequent price movements are illustrated in the figure below where the green markers indicated Bullish insights and red markers indicate Bearish insights. </em></p></div></td></tr>
</tbody></table><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/148/original/Insight+Publications.png?1620959235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206148"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Smartkarma</div></section><p><strong>Today, SS&amp;C exercised their matching right and <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02374722-2A1298194?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raised their bid</a> to A$2.61/share. </strong></p><div><p><em>More below the fold. </em></p></div><hr><div><div><div class="content-remarks"><p>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-australia-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30118" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-m-a-australia-foreign-investment-reforms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40210" rel="noopener">Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms</a></p></div></div></div>

Australia-based third party fund administration services provider Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) has seen its share price increase by more than 120% in little over two months. It all started when Hong Kong-headquartered Vistra launched a bid at A$1.20/share on 9th March 2021. Since then, multiple competitive bidders have got involved as described in my following insights. 

Date
Insight Title


9-Mar-21
Mainstream Group (MAI AU): Go-Shop Provision Makes It Interesting 



On 12th April, US-based financial technology company Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) launched a competing bid at A$2.00/share (a 66.7% increase from Vistra's A$1.20). 


15-Apr-21
Mainstream (MAI AU): Massive Overbid by SS&amp;C, Now Vistra Has to Respond 



MAI received a bid at A$2.20/share from an unidentified 3rd party party and SS&amp;C bumped their bid to A$2.25/share on 27th April 2021. 


27-Apr-21
Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&amp;C to Bump 



After the close on 28th April, Global Fund Administrator Apex Group Limited (Apex) launched a non-binding bid at A$2.35/share and MAI matched this bid. 


29-Apr-21
Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye!



Apex bumped their bid to A$2.55/share on 30th April 2021. 


2-May-21
Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump)  



I turned Bearish on the situation claiming that "as a Bump Option, this is not as attractive as the previous four instances". MAI AU shares dipped from A$2.65 on May 2nd to A$2.56 on May 6th and SS&amp;C exercised their matching right and raised their bid to A$2.56/share. 


6-May-21
Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&amp;C Overbids for the 4th Time 



Apex raised their bid to A$2.60/share. 

The timing of these insights and the subsequent price movements are illustrated in the figure below where the green markers indicated Bullish insights and red markers indicate Bearish insights. 
Source: SmartkarmaToday, SS&amp;C exercised their matching right and raised their bid to A$2.61/share. More below the fold. For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 and Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms

Mainstream (MAI AU): +120% in ~2 Months but Bidding War Continues...