Last Week in Event SPACE: Rakuten/Lyft, Delta, Kosaido, Ophir, Dairy Crest, Panalpina, BGF

Last Week in Event SPACE ...

• The question mark over the size of Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)'s stake in Lyft may be known in the coming two weeks.
• Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)'s Tender Off document fails to clarify how the FY18 dividend will be treated.
• An activist has come forward, and the external statutory auditor and lead shareholder (wife of founder) are against the offer, but Kosaido Co Ltd (7868 JP) situation still fits pretty cleanly in the "Too Hard" bucket for now.
• Ophir Energy (OPHR LN)'s shareholders ratchet up their opposition to Medco Energi Internasional T (MEDC IJ)'s Offer.
• A bump seems envisaged against an already healthy price, but it may not need be a big one to get the Dairy Crest (DCG LN) deal done.
  
• DSV A/S (DSV DC)'s Offer either comes down to price, or it comes down to loyalty to Panalpina Welttransport Holding (PWTN SW)'s management.
• The BGF Co Ltd (027410 KS) set up trade has provided a decent return recently, but could still run further.
• Plus CCASS movements and expected upcoming events for key M&A transactions.

(This insight covers specific insights & comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classification and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)

Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) (Mkt Cap: $10.2bn; Liquidity: $51mn)

Since announcing its foray into the deeper waters of being the fourth Type I Mobile Network Operator in Japan, Rakuten's shares have taken a mighty hit. But the focus in this insight is on ride-sharing company Lyft. In March 2015, Rakuten CEO Hiroshi Mikitani announced that Rakuten had invested US$300mn in Lyft, giving it a 11.9% stake after Series E round in May 2015. Recent articles suggest that Rakuten remains the top investor.

• As best as Travis Lundy can tell, from sources who track this, Rakuten is the single largest shareholder in Lyft, with a holding in the 10.4-12.0% range. That would suggest a position value of US$900mn-$1.2bn based on the last funding round in June 2018. At a $25bn pre-money IPO valuation, that would be worth US$1.5-2.0bn for a likely pre-tax IPO uplift of US$590-800mn.
• A report late Thursday Asia time suggested the Lyft roadshow would start the week of March 18th, which would mean the S-1 will be available two weeks before that. Investors will know more about Rakuten's ownership of Lyft by the end of next week or very early the following week. Travis would want to be long for now.

(link to Travis' insight: Will Rakuten Get A Near-Term Lyft?)

Doosan Heavy Industries (034020 KS) (Mkt Cap: $868mn; Liquidity: $78.5mn)
Doosan Engineering & Construction (011160 KS) (Mkt Cap: $91mn; Liquidity: $0.4mn)

DHICO announced a larger-than-expected ₩608.4bn rights offer. ₩543bn is expected to be raised through common shares at a preliminary price of ₩6,390; and ₩65bn via RCPS at a preliminary price of ₩6,970. This is a combined 72.56% capital increase a 42.05% share dilution. Concurrently, Doosan E&C announced a ₩420bn rights offer at a preliminary price of ₩1,255, a 15% discount to last close.

• For DHICO, Mar 27 is the ex-rights day for both Common and RCPS. Subscription rights (for the Common) will be listed and trade on Apr 19~25. May 2 is final pricing. May 8 is subscription and May 16 is payment. New Common shares will be listed on May 29.
• For E&C, the final price will be fixed on Apr 30. Whichever is higher - ₩1,255 or Apr 26~30 VWAP at a 40% discount - will be the final offering price. Mar 27 will be the ex-rights day. Subscription rights will be listed and traded on Apr 18~24. New shares will be listed on May 24.
• ₩1,255 is a lot more aggressive than generally viewed. DHICO owns nearly two thirds of E&C. With a 20% oversubscription, nearly ₩300bn will likely come from DHICO, essentially buttressing E&C at an even heftier price. Which is probably why the market is being less harsh on E&C relative to DHICO.

link to Sanghyun Park's insights:
Doosan E&C Rights Offer: Conditions & Timetable
DHICO (Doosan Heavy) Rights Offer: Conditions & Timetable.

Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) (Mkt Cap: $2.8bn; Liquidity: $3mn)

The 247-4 Form is out with a tender offer period between 26 Feb-1 April, and payment on the 4th April. The frustrating part is how Delta's FY18 dividend of Bt2.30 is treated. On one hand, it says the Bt71 Offer price is final unless there is a MAC. Further into the Offer doc, it mentions the Offeror "reserves the right" to reduce the offer price if a dividend is paid. DELTA's IR believes the dividend will be added, but it is not crystal clear.

• Furthermore, there is no minimum acceptance condition, as potentially flagged earlier, which means there is no possibility of fast-tracking payment. Some precedent voluntary offers included a minimum acceptance, which provides an expedited payment should investors who tender shares AND revoke their right to withdraw - provided that minimum is fulfilled.
• Shares traded up after the document came out, shrugging off the ambiguity in the document. Currently trading at a gross/annualised return of 1.1%/11%. The dividend is subject to a 10% tax for non-residents.

(link to my insight: Delta Thailand's Tender Offer: Updated Timetable)

M1 Ltd (M1 SP) (Mkt Cap: $1.4bn; Liquidity: $3mn)

The previous Friday, the Offerors for M1 announced that their Offer had been declared Unconditional In All Respects as the tendered amount was 57.04% and the total held by concert parties was 76.35%. Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) made an announcement to the Bursa Malaysia that it had accepted the Offer as required because it was a significant asset disposal. Going unconditional has triggered an extension of the Closing Date to 4 March 2019.

• If you want to fight this with an appraisal, you can. Travis doesn't see the point. If you want to hold on to the stock in order to block full squeezeout and play chicken with the big boys, you can, but it requires a relatively big ticket (roughly 6.73% of the shares out).
• So Travis recommends taking the money. It was better to take the money in early January and re-deploy, rather than wait for the close of the offer. He would accept now and sees no upside from waiting.

(link to Travis' insight: M1 Offer Unconditional as Axiata Tenders)

Kosaido Co Ltd (7868 JP) (Mkt Cap: $160mn; Liquidity: $1mn)

When the Tender Offer / MBO for Kosaido was announced last month, Travis' first reaction was that this was wrong, concluding this was a virtual asset strip in progress, and suggested that the only way this was likely to not get done is if some brave activist came forward.

• Shortly afterwards, an activist did come forward. Yoshiaki Murakami's bought 5% through his entity Reno KK, and later lifted his stake (combined with affiliates) to 9.55%. Travis thought the stock had run too far at that point (¥775/share). While still cheap, he did not expect Bain to lift its price by 30+%, nor a white knight to arrive quickly enough.
• This week a media article suggested longstanding external statutory auditor Mr. Nakatsuji and lead shareholder Sakurai Mie were against the takeover.
• The possibility this deal fails because the "put protection" of the deal price at ¥610 is no longer solid has gone up. Conversely, the probability that Bain and the MBO have to come in with a price adjustment higher has gone up. Travis is inclined to remain bearish in the medium-term as there is a significant likelihood there is no alternative solution during the Tender Offer period itself.

(link to Travis' insight: Kosaido TOB (7868 JP) Situation Gets Weird - Activists and Independent Opposition to an MBO)

Briefly ...

• After announcing earlier this month a number of indicative non-binding bids were received for a "whole of company transaction", the AFR is now reporting (paywalled) that Lone Star has also joined the battle for Aveo Group (AOG AU). (A Case for Privatising Aveo)
• Xingfa Aluminium (98 HK) announced both China Lesso Group Holdings (2128 HK) (26.3% shareholder) and Sure Keen (11.5%, ED Liao Yuqing's vehicle), collectively holding 37.81% of shares out, will NOT tender their shares into the offer. (Guangxin Reloads A Peculiar Low-Ball Offer For Xingfa Aluminium)

Dairy Crest (DCG LN) (Mkt Cap: $1.3bn; Liquidity: $4.5mn)

Saputo Inc (SAP CN) and Dairy Crest announced an all-cash deal where Saputo will buy Dairy Crest for 620p/share, to be implemented through a Scheme of Arrangement with an expected close in Q2 2019. This appears to tick all the necessary boxes. Friendly, horizontal integration, and limited job losses. Shares are trading through terms early (he published at 628.5p), perhaps on expectations the wide open register means shareholders can try to hold out for a higher price.

• At almost 14x EV/EBITDA on a TTM basis and a bit lower on a March 2019 FY-end basis, it is a high enough multiple to not be insulting for a dairy company, and may keep other suitors away.
• Dairy Crest's directors have given irrevocable notice to accept, and the directors' advisors (Greenhill & Co) have deemed the Offer "fair and reasonable."
• One extra turn of EV/EBITDA would lift the takeover price just under 10%. That would clear out most of the naysayers who bought in the frothier "we're going to be an asset-light branded goods company" days of 2015-2017. Doable, but as it is an agreed deal, Travis doesn't see the need to push it.

(link to Travis' insight: Saputo to Buy Crest Dairy; Initial Market Response Wants a Bump)

Ophir Energy (OPHR LN) (Mkt Cap: $509mn; Liquidity: $6mn)

Petrus Advisors (3.5% shareholder) has dialed up the pressure on its opposition to Medco Energi Internasional T (MEDC IJ)'s £0.55/share offer for Ophir Energy (OPHR LN), specifically calling into question Bill Schrader's (Ophir's Chairman) business acumen.

• In its prior letter to Ophir on the 14 January, Petrus recommended selling the South-East Asian (SEA) assets to Medco, with a low-end fair value, before synergies, of £0.64/share, through to £1.42/share on a blue sky basis. It also argued that Ophir should negotiate with the Equatorial Guinea ministry (the regulator that terminated the Fortuna license, resulting in write-offs of US$610mn) to be compensated for its $700mn investment and the unfair seizure of the license, otherwise it would set a precedent for other international operators doing business in EG.
• Petrus has now rounded on Schrader over perceived mismanagement of the EG licence, and a lack of professionalism in not soliciting and considering offers for Ophir from other buyers. Petrus' beef is not an outlier - alternative hedge fund Sand Grove has increased its exposure, via cash-settled derivatives, to 17.28% (as at 13 February); while Ian Hannam, who advised Ophir’s board on its 2013 right issue, is understood to have also written to Ophir’s interim CEO Alan Booth and the board saying Medco’s offer is too low.
• Overall, Petrus' assertions that Ophir is being sold at "sub optimal terms" appear valid, most notably on the EG compensation and the illogical operations update earlier this month. The alternative push to sell the SEA assets separately, as that has been Medco's core focus, not international operations, also makes sense.

(link to my insight: Petrus Doubles Down On Ophir Energy)

Panalpina Welttransport Holding (PWTN SW) (Mkt Cap: $3.7bn; Liquidity: $22mn)

Last month, DSV A/S (DSV DC) made a public proposal of a takeover for cash and scrip valued at CHF 170/share, which came at a 24% premium to last and +31% vs 1-month VWAP. The #2, #3, and long-time #4 shareholders are firmly and publicly in the camp of trying to get something done. 45.9%-shareholder Ernst Göhner Foundation is sending mixed signals - do they want a higher price? Or do they want to wait and let Panalpina grow by its own consolidator strategy?

• Panalpina has now confirmed that it in preliminary talks with Kuwait-listed logistics company Agility Public Warehouse. A Bloomberg report suggested a deal could be reached as early as this past week for Agility's logistics business. The same article suggested the Göhner Foundation is supportive of the new talks. Agility's press release was much more non-committal.
• DSV has also announced a new all cash CHF 180/share offer for Panalpina; although the original cash and scrip offer was then worth CHF 184.5/share, which is an even better premium to pre-offer terms. One wonders whether cash-only would suit the Foundation; the DSV press release seemed to respond to that.
• It is not clear what would drive the Foundation to give up its control. And Panalpina's measly share price reaction to the all-cash offer suggest there is considerable skepticism out there. But at some price, Panalpina's board looks pretty stupid to not accept the cash.
• If you do not think a deal with DSV has any chance of getting up, Panalpina shares are a sell here. If they overpay for Agility and cannot improve their own margins well past historical highs in a market trending weaker, then the shares could drop.

(link to Travis' insight: The Panalpina Conundrum)

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)

Curtis Lehnert backs out a discount to NAV of 42%, the widest since at least 2015. His proposal to structure the trade is to use a market-cap weighted hedge on the two largest listed subsidiaries, Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN) and Mahindra & Mahindra Fin Services Ltd. (MMFS IN) along with a core business hedge using Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) to hedge the core automotive business.

• Using Curtis' figures, the implied stub is at its lowest level since a brief downward spike in February 2015, and you would have to go back to April 2014 to find a lower level.
• The push back on this setup is that the auto operations have recorded marginally, yet sequential profit declines in FY16 and FY17; while recording three sequential quarterly declines up to December 2018. The big question is whether Mahindra can regain market share as it kick-starts a new model cycle.

(link to Curtis' insight: TRADE IDEA - Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) Stub: Rise)

BGF Co Ltd (027410 KS) / Bgf Retail (282330 KS)

On January 8th, Douglas Kim initiated a setup trade of going long BGF Co and going short BGF Retail. (Korean Stubs Spotlight: A Pair Trade Between BGF Co. & BGF Retail) This setup has worked out well (7.5% return) and he now think this is a good time to close the trade.

• In contrast, Sanghyun believes the Holdco is still undervalued relative to the Sub by about 10%. Plugging in Sanghyun's numbers, I back out a discount to NAV of 45% against a one-year average of 30%, with a 12-month range of -51.5% to 15.5% (premium).

links to:
Douglas' insight: Korean Stubs Spotlight: Close the Pair Trade Between BGF Co. & BGF Retail
Sanghyun's insight: BGF Duo Stub Trade: Short Sub / Long Holdco with a Very Short-Term Horizon

Can One Bhd (CAN MK) / Kian Joo Can Factory (KJC MK)

Back on the 13 December 2018, Can One announced a proposed MGO for Kian Joo at RM3.10/share, a 52.7% premium to last close. This required Can One shareholders' approval which was received on the 14 February. Can One's current 33% stake in Kian Joo accounts for ~86% of its market cap. The offer doc should be out, on or before the 7 March, with payment either late March (along with the first close of the Offer), or early April, depending on when the offer turns unconditional. The offer is conditional on 50% acceptance. Both sides are illiquid.

• This looks like a decent exit for Kian Joo shareholders. Apart from EPF with 10.1%, former NED Teow China See is the only other shareholder with >5% with 8.9%.
• For Can One, this is an aggressive pitch to make Kian Joo a subsidiary amidst an uncertain economic backdrop, while potential synergies may be offset via higher interest costs.

(link to my insight: StubWorld: Can One's Offer For Kian Joo Can; Mahindra At Possible Set-Up Levels)

Briefly ...

• Sanghyun recommended long Hansae Yes24 Holdings Co, Ltd. (016450 KS), short Hansae Co Ltd (105630 KS), now that the Holdco/Sub ratio is at -227% of σ or a 120D low. Using his numbers, I see the discount to NAV at 49% against a one-year average of 44%; while the implied stub is at a one-year low. (link to Sanghyun's insight: Hansae Holdco/Sub Trade: Huge Divergence Now, Sub Price Rally Should Be Resisted Here)

Hyundai Glovis (086280 KS) / Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS)

There are still two schools of thought on the HMG restructuring. One is that Glovis/Mobis are merged into a holdco entity. Or Glovis becomes the holdco with Mobis→ HM→ Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) below. Since late 3Q18, there has been increased speculation on the latter. This has pushed up Glovis' price relative to Mobis.

• Each outcome is beset with its own set of issues. For Glovis to be the sole holdco, it has to come up with nearly ₩2tn to buy Kia's Mobis stake, probably through new, and burdensome, debt. Glovis may also face the risk of forced holdco conversion, creating an issue with Kia as a "great grandson" subsidiary.
• This speculation pushing up Glovis relative to Mobis has yet to be substantiated/justified, suggesting Glovis is overbought. Sanghyun expects a mean reversion, and recommends a long Mobis and short Glovis.

(link to Sanghyun's insight: Glovis/Mobis Pair Trade: Glovis Being Overpriced Relative to Mobis on Unsubstantiated Speculation)

• Navitas Ltd (NVT AU) has agreed to extend the exclusivity period granted to the BGH consortium to 1 March (from 18 Feb), in order to allow additional time for BGH to complete a limited set of remaining due diligence investigations.

• Hopewell Holdings (54 HK) and the Offeror are still in the course of finalising the information to be included in the Scheme Document. No date for the dispatch has been announced.

• ESR's offer for Propertylink Group (PLG AU) has turned unconditional after Centuria Capital (CNI AU) tendered.

• The composite doc for Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK), initially due out this past week, has been further postponed until the 29 March - on or before - ostensibly to incorporate the FY18 financials.

• Netcomm Wireless (NTC AU) has received $1.10 cash offer (53% premium to last close) from Casa Systems (CASA US) via a Scheme. The deal values Netcomm at ~US$114m. The scheme is subject to FIRB and shareholder approval. Stewart David Paul James, a NED, holds 12.3% and is the major shareholder. The announcement states that each Netcomm director intends to vote the Netcomm shares held by them in favour of the scheme - subject to a +ve IFA opinion and in the absence of a competing offer. This includes Stewart's stake.

• MYOB Group Ltd (MYO AU) announced no superior proposal emerged after concluding its ’go shop’ period for rival offers to KKR’s takeover proposal. At a gross/annualised spread of 0.9%/4.8%, assuming early May payment, this looks to be trading a bit tight.

My ongoing series flags large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves which are often outside normal market transactions. These may be indicative of share pledges. Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings.

Often these moves can easily be explained - the placement of new shares, rights issue, movements subsequent to a takeover, amongst others. For those mentioned below, I could not find an obvious reason for the CCASS move.