Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The share price has bounced back on strong 3Q orders and long-term optimism, but weak 4Q guidance calls the growth trajectory into question.</li>
<li>Guidance, which has sales dropping to about half what they were a year earlier, is based on the expected timing of customer acceptance of delivered equipment. It could be conservative.</li>
<li>At 75X EPS guidance for FY Jun-24, a rate of growth not visible in current trends has already been discounted. Current orders should translate into sales in 2026.</li>
</ul>


The share price has bounced back on strong 3Q orders and long-term optimism, but weak 4Q guidance calls the growth trajectory into question.
Guidance, which has sales dropping to about half what they were a year earlier, is based on the expected timing of customer acceptance of delivered equipment. It could be conservative.
At 75X EPS guidance for FY Jun-24, a rate of growth not visible in current trends has already been discounted. Current orders should translate into sales in 2026.


Lasertec (6920 JP): Orders Up, Guidance Down

Lasertec Corp

Lasertec (6920 JP): Orders Up, Guidance Down