Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Efforts to Preserve Operating Margins Produce Inflation and US Equity Valuation Concerns

US Companies Preserve Profit Margins Via Higher Prices to Avoid Repeat of 2000-2003 Environment

Supply-Side Developments Raise the Spectre of Structurally Higher Inflation

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Looming weakness in the housing sector is not sufficient for a Fed policy pivot. The current state of labour market conditions precludes the existence of significant supply slack.</li>
<li>The recovery in the participation rate of prime-aged workers means that an important safety valve for wage inflation is absent. Upward pressure on wages could persist, while productivity may suffer. </li>
<li>Operating margin forecasts remain optimistic due to the envisaged ability of companies to pass-through higher input costs via price increases, an outcome which will slow the return of price stability. </li>
</ul>


Looming weakness in the housing sector is not sufficient for a Fed policy pivot. The current state of labour market conditions precludes the existence of significant supply slack.
The recovery in the participation rate of prime-aged workers means that an important safety valve for wage inflation is absent. Upward pressure on wages could persist, while productivity may suffer. 
Operating margin forecasts remain optimistic due to the envisaged ability of companies to pass-through higher input costs via price increases, an outcome which will slow the return of price stability. 


Lack of Labour Market Slack and Preserving High Operating Margins Precludes Fed Policy Pivot