Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Potential Yearend Short-Covering Stocks in Korea

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Kumho Petrochem – The Asian Governance Drive Continues

The M&A Fight for Kumho Petrochem - Time Is On the Side of Park Chul Wan

Kumho Petrochemical: This Machine Ready to Roll Again

Top Glove Hong Kong Offering: From Supply Shortage to Oversupply

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>Kumho PetroC AGM ended with Park Chul-wan's defeat last Friday. It was a well-expected result. What was surprising was a widened price gap between 1P and ord.</p><p>Ord gained 5.99%, whereas 1P stayed at +1.65%, resulting in a nearly 2σ move in favor of ord.</p><p>1P discount is now pretty much back to the 2-yr mean.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% of sigma"}'>% of sigma</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Today"}'>Today</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.3336713645431289}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-26]C[7]">-33.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1"}'>T-1</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.451024967930148}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-26]C[7]">145.10%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-2"}'>T-2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.383964419410094}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-26]C[7]">138.40%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-3"}'>T-3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9156023106109108}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-26]C[7]">91.56%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-4"}'>T-4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.28025357401397377}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-26]C[7]">-28.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-5"}'>T-5</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.0565298444071825}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-26]C[7]">-105.65%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Metric"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>Metric</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price ratio"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>Price ratio</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discount"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>Discount</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Δ"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>Δ</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Today"}'>Today</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3857740585774059}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-35]C[2]">0.38577</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6142259414225941}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-35]C[0]">61.42%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D mean"}'>120D mean</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3891208548753185}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(Data!R2C4:R100C4)">0.38912</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6108791451246814}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(Data!R2C3:R100C3)">61.09%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.008600917313940934}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">-0.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D median"}'>120D median</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.38634146341463416}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(Data!R2C4:R100C4)">0.38634</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6136585365853658}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(Data!R2C3:R100C3)">61.37%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.0014686615105024932}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">-0.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D high"}'>120D high</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5102040816326531}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(Data!R2C4:R100C4)">0.51020</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4897959183673469}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(Data!R2C3:R100C3)">48.98%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.24388284518828449}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">-24.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D low"}'>120D low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.35174418604651164}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(Data!R2C4:R100C4)">0.35174</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6482558139534884}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(Data!R2C3:R100C3)">64.83%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.09674608388948443}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">9.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y mean"}'>1Y mean</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3910047941933641}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(Data!R2C4:R248C4)">0.39100</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6089952058066355}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(Data!R2C3:R248C3)">60.90%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.013377676421459561}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">-1.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y median"}'>1Y median</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.38873239436619716}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(Data!R2C4:R248C4)">0.38873</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6112676056338028}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(Data!R2C3:R248C3)">61.13%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.007610211630586287}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">-0.76%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y high"}'>1Y high</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5102040816326531}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(Data!R2C4:R248C4)">0.51020</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4897959183673469}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(Data!R2C3:R248C3)">48.98%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.24388284518828449}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">-24.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y low"}'>1Y low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.35174418604651164}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(Data!R2C4:R248C4)">0.35174</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6482558139534884}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(Data!R2C3:R248C3)">64.83%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.09674608388948443}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">9.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y mean"}'>2Y mean</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.40209958122007}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(Data!R2C4:R476C4)">0.40210</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5979004187799297}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(Data!R2C3:R476C3)">59.79%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.04060069546237386}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">-4.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y median"}'>2Y median</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.39854545454545454}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(Data!R2C4:R476C4)">0.39855</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6014545454545455}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(Data!R2C3:R476C3)">60.15%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.032045017255596546}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">-3.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y high"}'>2Y high</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5102040816326531}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(Data!R2C4:R476C4)">0.51020</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4897959183673469}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(Data!R2C3:R476C3)">48.98%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.24388284518828449}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">-24.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y low"}'>2Y low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.35174418604651164}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(Data!R2C4:R476C4)">0.35174</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6482558139534884}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(Data!R2C3:R476C3)">64.83%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.09674608388948443}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R37C[-2]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">9.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/790/original/chart+%281%29.png?1616968456" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197790"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/791/original/chart.png?1616968465" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197791"></figure></section>

Kumho PetroC AGM ended with Park Chul-wan's defeat last Friday. It was a well-expected result. What was surprising was a widened price gap between 1P and ord.Ord gained 5.99%, whereas 1P stayed at +1.65%, resulting in a nearly 2σ move in favor of ord.1P discount is now pretty much back to the 2-yr mean.





% of sigma

Today
-33.37%


T-1
145.10%


T-2
138.40%


T-3
91.56%


T-4
-28.03%


T-5
-105.65%

Source: KRX










Metric
Price ratio
Discount
Δ


Today
0.38577
61.42%
-


120D mean
0.38912
61.09%
-0.86%


120D median
0.38634
61.37%
-0.15%


120D high
0.51020
48.98%
-24.39%


120D low
0.35174
64.83%
9.67%


1Y mean
0.39100
60.90%
-1.34%


1Y median
0.38873
61.13%
-0.76%


1Y high
0.51020
48.98%
-24.39%


1Y low
0.35174
64.83%
9.67%


2Y mean
0.40210
59.79%
-4.06%


2Y median
0.39855
60.15%
-3.20%


2Y high
0.51020
48.98%
-24.39%


2Y low
0.35174
64.83%
9.67%


Source: KRX





Kumho PetroC Pref Arb Trade: Buy 1P Short Ord

Kumho Petro Chemical

Kumho PetroC Pref Arb Trade: Buy 1P Short Ord