Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Korea NPS Local Equity Trading Goes Extreme: TAA ±2.0%p Must Be Near Zero Now

NPS Announces A Reduction in Asset Allocation in Korean Equities to 14.5% of Assets by 2026

Korea NPS, Domestic Stock Asset Allocation Ratio Change

KOSPI 200 1Q Quarterly Div Stocks: Status Check

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>The Korea NPS made it official that it would increase the SAA tolerable band from ±2.0%p to ±3.0%p but reducing the TAA to ±2.0%p to keep the overall tolerable band at ±5.0%p.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SAA &amp; TAA allowable range"}'>SAA &amp; TAA tolerable bands</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SAA"}'>SAA (strategic asset allocation)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TAA"}'>TAA (tactical asset allocation)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Domestic bonds"}'>Domestic bonds</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"±3.5"}'>±3.5%p</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"±5.0"}'>±5.0%p</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Overseas bonds"}'>Overseas bonds</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"±0.5"}'>±0.5%p</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"±1.0"}'>±1.0%p</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Domestic stocks"}'><strong>Domestic stocks</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"±2.0"}'><strong>±3.0%p</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"±3.0"}'><strong>±2.0%p</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Overseas stocks"}'>Overseas stocks</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"±1.0"}'>±1.0%p</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"±1.0"}'>±1.0%p</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Alternative"}'>Alternative</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"±1.2"}'>±1.2%p</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"±1.2"}'>±1.2%p</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: Korea NPS"}'>Source: Korea NPS</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><div>
<p>As of January this year, the actual weight is 21%, 4.2% over the target of 16.8%.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="200">
<col width="200">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NPS local equity weight"}'>NPS local equity weight</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"FY2020 yearend"}'>FY2020 yearend</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"FY2021 Jan"}'>FY2021 Jan</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Target"}'>Target</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.173}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>17.30%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.168}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>16.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Actual"}'>Actual</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.212}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>21.20%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.21}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>21.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Excess %"}'>- Excess %</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.03900000000000001}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]-R[-2]C[0]">3.90%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.04199999999999998}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]-R[-2]C[0]">4.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: SED"}'>Source: SED</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>It was under SAA ±2.0%p and TAA ±3.0%p.</p>
<p>Assuming the SAA ±2.0%p being filled up, the TAA was filled up at 73% (2.2%p of the 3%p limit).</p>
<p>Now with the SAA extended up to 3%p, 73% of the 2%p room comes at 1.5%p.</p>
<p><strong>Assuming the SAA is filled up and the TAA still stays at the same 73%, the NPS can raise the local equity weight by 0.3%p, which translates into ₩0.5T worth of immediately available funds for additional local equity buying.</strong></p>
<p><em>* The local equity holding totaled ₩180T as of Jan 2021. The NPS owns 6.95% of KOSPI and KOSDAQ combined and 8.24% of KOSPI.</em></p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"(₩T) - as of Jan 2021"}'>(₩T) - as of Jan 2021</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Amount"}'>Amount</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Weight"}'>Weight</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Total assets"}'>Total assets</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":855.3}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'>855.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>100.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Financial investment"}'>Financial investment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":854.1}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'>854.1</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.999}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>99.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Domestic equity"}'><strong>Domestic equity</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":180}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'><strong>180.0</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.21}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'><strong>21.00%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Overseas equity"}'>Overseas equity</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":201.3}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'>201.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.235}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>23.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Domestic bonds"}'>Domestic bonds</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":330.9}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'>330.9</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.387}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>38.70%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Overseas bonds"}'>Overseas bonds</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":47.6}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'>47.6</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.056}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>5.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Alternative"}'>Alternative</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":92.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'>92.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.108}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>10.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Short-term liquidity"}'>Short-term liquidity</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.1}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'>2.1</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.002}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>0.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Other"}'>Other</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'>1.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.001}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>0.10%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: Korea NPS"}'>Source: Korea NPS</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"(₩T)"}'>(₩T)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI"}'>KOSPI</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSDAQ"}'>KOSDAQ</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Number of companies"}'>Number of companies</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":805}'>805</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1496}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>1,496</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Number of constituents "}'>Number of constituents</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":923}'>923</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1499}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>1,499</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market cap"}'>Market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2183.408}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'>2,183.4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":405.1}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}'>405.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Combined"}'>Combined</td>
<td colspan="2" rowspan="1" style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2588.508}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+R[-1]C[1]">2,588.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Korea NPS"}'>Korea NPS-owned local equity</td>
<td colspan="2" rowspan="1" style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":180}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[9]C[0]">180.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - % of the combined"}'><strong>- % of the combined KOSPI and KOSDAQ</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" rowspan="1" style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.06953812775544832}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-2]C[0]"><strong>6.95%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - % of KOSPI"}'><strong>- % of KOSPI</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" rowspan="1" style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.08243992877190154}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-4]C[0]"><strong>8.24%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>

The Korea NPS made it official that it would increase the SAA tolerable band from ±2.0%p to ±3.0%p but reducing the TAA to ±2.0%p to keep the overall tolerable band at ±5.0%p.







SAA &amp; TAA tolerable bands
SAA (strategic asset allocation)
TAA (tactical asset allocation)


Domestic bonds
±3.5%p
±5.0%p


Overseas bonds
±0.5%p
±1.0%p


Domestic stocks
±3.0%p
±2.0%p


Overseas stocks
±1.0%p
±1.0%p


Alternative
±1.2%p
±1.2%p

Source: Korea NPS


As of January this year, the actual weight is 21%, 4.2% over the target of 16.8%.








NPS local equity weight
FY2020 yearend
FY2021 Jan


Target
17.30%
16.80%


Actual
21.20%
21.00%


- Excess %
3.90%
4.20%

Source: SED


It was under SAA ±2.0%p and TAA ±3.0%p.
Assuming the SAA ±2.0%p being filled up, the TAA was filled up at 73% (2.2%p of the 3%p limit).
Now with the SAA extended up to 3%p, 73% of the 2%p room comes at 1.5%p.
Assuming the SAA is filled up and the TAA still stays at the same 73%, the NPS can raise the local equity weight by 0.3%p, which translates into ₩0.5T worth of immediately available funds for additional local equity buying.
* The local equity holding totaled ₩180T as of Jan 2021. The NPS owns 6.95% of KOSPI and KOSDAQ combined and 8.24% of KOSPI.








(₩T) - as of Jan 2021
Amount
Weight


Total assets
855.3
100.00%


Financial investment
854.1
99.90%


Domestic equity
180.0
21.00%


Overseas equity
201.3
23.50%


Domestic bonds
330.9
38.70%


Overseas bonds
47.6
5.60%


Alternative
92.2
10.80%


Short-term liquidity
2.1
0.20%


Other
1.0
0.10%

Source: Korea NPS










(₩T)
KOSPI
KOSDAQ


Number of companies
805
1,496


Number of constituents
923
1,499


Market cap
2,183.4
405.1


Combined
2,588.5


Korea NPS-owned local equity
180.0


- % of the combined KOSPI and KOSDAQ
6.95%


- % of KOSPI
8.24%

Source: KRX




Korea NPS Local Equity Weight Change: Stocks to Be Affected

Samsung Electronics

Korea NPS Local Equity Weight Change: Stocks to Be Affected