Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Komatsu and HCM – Komtrax Suggests Recovery In Store

Komatsu – Better Momentum than HCM in Americas and China

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​28 - Ibiden, Sony, Komatsu, Kao, Toyo Suisan

Komatsu/HCM Result and Forecast Comparison and Hexindo Adiperkasa Readthrough

Weak HCM Guidance Causes Jitters but We Expect Another Good Year; Favour Komatsu Temporarily

Komatsu: Regional Mining and Construction Trends in Charts

HCM: Setsumeikai Positive and Earnings Should Grow on Constant Currency Basis

HCM: 4Q Unlikely to Surprise but We Do Not Expect an Earnings Decline Next Year

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Yesterday Komatsu came out with slightly weak earnings as revenue was down 10.2% YoY (5.1% below consensus) and OP was down 35% (16% below consensus), and revised down its FY outlook from ¥337bn in OP to ¥279bn.Asia was perhaps the biggest culprit as sales were down 42% YoY, though China, Africa and Oceania were also weak. Japan was strong and North America and Europe held up, reinforcing the developed markets vs. emerging markets skew that was apparent in HCM’s results.

Yesterday Komatsu came out with slightly weak earnings as revenue was down 10.2% YoY (5.1% below consensus) and OP was down 35% (16% below consensus), and revised down its FY outlook from ¥337bn in OP to ¥279bn.Asia was perhaps the biggest culprit as sales were down 42% YoY, though China, Africa and Oceania were also weak. Japan was strong and North America and Europe held up, reinforcing the developed markets vs. emerging markets skew that was apparent in HCM’s results. 

Komatsu – Is the Company Starting to Lose Ground Vs. HCM?

Komatsu Ltd

Komatsu – Is the Company Starting to Lose Ground Vs. HCM?