Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Kirin: Holdco Discount Is Starting to Unwind Alongside The Return of Institutional Investors

Kirin: Off of Myanmar & Off to a Good Start

Kirin: Holdco Trade Has More Room to Run, Also Outright Attractive

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>’s share price has underperformed its peers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a> by 47.5% and 36.8% respectively during the last 10 months as big foreign funds such as Franklin Resources, Morgan Stanley and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board decided to trim their stakes, amidst human rights violation allegations regarding Kirin’s JV partner in Myanmar, Myanmar Economic Holdings (MEHL).</li>
<li>We expect Kirin to settle the matter with MEHL before February 2022. In addition, we expect the consumption of alcoholic beverages to increase following the complete removal of the state of emergency in Japan from the 1<sup>st</sup> of October 2021.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, institutional investors have started to increase their holdings over the last few months, perhaps in anticipation of a settlement for the Myanmar JV issues. We expect this change in investor sentiment to unwind Kirin’s holdco discount, which is currently at a multi-year low level.</li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s share price has underperformed its peers, Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) and Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP) by 47.5% and 36.8% respectively during the last 10 months as big foreign funds such as Franklin Resources, Morgan Stanley and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board decided to trim their stakes, amidst human rights violation allegations regarding Kirin’s JV partner in Myanmar, Myanmar Economic Holdings (MEHL).
We expect Kirin to settle the matter with MEHL before February 2022. In addition, we expect the consumption of alcoholic beverages to increase following the complete removal of the state of emergency in Japan from the 1st of October 2021.
Meanwhile, institutional investors have started to increase their holdings over the last few months, perhaps in anticipation of a settlement for the Myanmar JV issues. We expect this change in investor sentiment to unwind Kirin’s holdco discount, which is currently at a multi-year low level.


Kirin: Holdco Discount Could Unwind As Institutional Investors Return Following Myanmar JV Troubles