Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Kirin: Holdco Discount Is Starting to Unwind Alongside The Return of Institutional Investors

Kirin: Off of Myanmar & Off to a Good Start

Kirin: Holdco Trade Has More Room to Run, Also Outright Attractive

Kirin: An Asset Write-Down/Disposal Could Be Pending for the Military Linked Myanmar JV

Norges Bank Puts Kirin On a Watchlist Over Ties with Myanmar Military Linked JV

Kirin Seems Enticing from a Holdco Perspective, but Myanmar JV Still Poses Reputational & ESG Risks

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>’s 2Q21 results, released yesterday was rather disappointing with revenue and operating profit falling below the consensus by 1.5% and 67% respectively.</li>
<li>The company’s revenue grew 1.5% YoY to ¥454.7bn compared to -3.6%, -2.7%, -4.1% and -9.6% in 1Q21, 4Q20, 3Q20 and 2Q20, respectively.</li>
<li>The operating profit decreased 40.9% YoY to ¥13.8bn, compared to ¥28.0bn, ¥23.6bn, ¥54.9bn and ¥23.4bn in 1Q21, 4Q20, 3Q20 and 2Q20, respectively.</li>
<li>The full-year revenue and normalised operating profit guidance were lowered by 0.5% and 5.6% respectively and the new 2021 revenue and normalised operating profit guidance stood at ¥1,870bn and ¥170bn compared to consensus revenue and OP of ¥1,862bn and ¥152.2bn, respectively.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, the price reaction to the earnings miss was rather subdued with shares only falling around 2.1%. This would normally concern us. However, Kirin is currently trading near the 52-week low and it appears that downside risks such as the troubles regarding the Myanmar JV and the overall market weaknesses due to COVID-19 are mostly priced in the current share price. Therefore, we would buy Kirin at these levels.</li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s 2Q21 results, released yesterday was rather disappointing with revenue and operating profit falling below the consensus by 1.5% and 67% respectively.
The company’s revenue grew 1.5% YoY to ¥454.7bn compared to -3.6%, -2.7%, -4.1% and -9.6% in 1Q21, 4Q20, 3Q20 and 2Q20, respectively.
The operating profit decreased 40.9% YoY to ¥13.8bn, compared to ¥28.0bn, ¥23.6bn, ¥54.9bn and ¥23.4bn in 1Q21, 4Q20, 3Q20 and 2Q20, respectively.
The full-year revenue and normalised operating profit guidance were lowered by 0.5% and 5.6% respectively and the new 2021 revenue and normalised operating profit guidance stood at ¥1,870bn and ¥170bn compared to consensus revenue and OP of ¥1,862bn and ¥152.2bn, respectively.
Nevertheless, the price reaction to the earnings miss was rather subdued with shares only falling around 2.1%. This would normally concern us. However, Kirin is currently trading near the 52-week low and it appears that downside risks such as the troubles regarding the Myanmar JV and the overall market weaknesses due to COVID-19 are mostly priced in the current share price. Therefore, we would buy Kirin at these levels.


Kirin: An End to Troubles in Myanmar JV Could Unwind the Multi-Year Low Holdco Discount