China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Market Share Gain Is the Main Catalyst

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Beike (BEKE) reported C3Q24 revenue in-line with our estimate and consensus but non-GAAP operating profit 26%/25% below, mainly due to higher commission rebate and agent salaries;</li>
<li>Strong rebound in home transaction volumes in October and November, led to our C4Q24 revenue 16% above consensus. But the rebound needs more stimulus to sustain;</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP to US$25 to reflect the near term rebound and steady market share gains.</li>
</ul>


Beike (BEKE) reported C3Q24 revenue in-line with our estimate and consensus but non-GAAP operating profit 26%/25% below, mainly due to higher commission rebate and agent salaries;
Strong rebound in home transaction volumes in October and November, led to our C4Q24 revenue 16% above consensus. But the rebound needs more stimulus to sustain;
We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP to US$25 to reflect the near term rebound and steady market share gains.


[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: C4Q24 Rebound but What’s Next?