Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Kakao Pay IPO Revised Prospectus Out: Key Revisions & Talking Points

Kakao Pay: Post-Listing Trading Timeline & Valuation De-Rating Factor

FSC's Sudden Action on Local Financial Platforms: A Fatal Blow to Kakao Pay's IPO Valuation

Kakao Bank & Kakao Pay Listings in Close Proximity: Institutional Cannibalization Risk

The Blockchain Delusion. A (Mostly) Bearish Investment Thesis.

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

<h2>Listing schedule</h2><p>First, it was confirmed that the Financial Supervisory Service discussed the scope of correction and listing schedule with Kakao Pay during the Chuseok holiday.</p><p>The results of this discussion have not yet been leaked to the market. However, the local street's general view is that the listing schedule will not be substantially delayed. Kakao Pay's listing schedule has already been postponed once, and delaying it until next year could be a significant burden for the Financial Supervisory Service as well.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>The majority view in the local market is that Kakao Pay will submit a revised securities declaration at the end of September (likely sometime next week). </strong><strong>And the bookbuilding will begin around mid-October after the 15 business day grace period. </strong><strong>In this case, the listing date is likely to be around mid-November.</strong></p></div><h2>What changes are to be added?</h2><p>Kakao Pay has so far provided a service that recommends insurance or financial investment products that meet individual needs through the app. The FSC concluded that this was a product brokerage service, not an advertisement.</p><p>Of course, a business license is required to broker financial products in the Korean market. An insurance broker license is required to broker insurance, and a brokerage license is needed to broker financial investment products under the Capital Market Act.</p><p>Currently, Kakao Pay does not have these licenses. Instead, Kakao Pay's subsidiaries, KP Insurance Service, and Kakao Pay Securities, hold these financial product brokerage licenses. However, the FSC raised the issue, saying that this is a license owned by a subsidiary, not a license of Kakao Pay.</p><p>Therefore, the FSC requested Kakao Pay to immediately stop these services from September 25, when the guidance period of the Financial Consumer Protection Act ends. In this regard, Kakao Pay has already temporarily suspended insurance product brokerage services such as car insurance, companion animal insurance, and overseas travel insurance.</p><p>Kakao Pay has no choice but to include the newly changed regulatory environment and the resulting temporary suspension of services in the revised securities report. Then, the question is whether a lowering of the offering price is inevitable.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>The general view of the local market is that a downward revision of the offering price is inevitable. As 32% of sales in the first half of this year were from the brokerage of financial products, future growth and sales estimates will have to be revised down.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Of course, Kakao Pay can resume these financial product brokerage services under the name of its subsidiaries or by directly obtaining a license. However, the problem is that the cost structure will be significantly different if it becomes a financial product brokerage service rather than an advertisement. That is, it is inevitable </strong><strong>to make a major revision to whether Kakao Pay can achieve the previously estimated sales/profit growth rate with this cost structure.</strong></p>
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Listing scheduleFirst, it was confirmed that the Financial Supervisory Service discussed the scope of correction and listing schedule with Kakao Pay during the Chuseok holiday.The results of this discussion have not yet been leaked to the market. However, the local street's general view is that the listing schedule will not be substantially delayed. Kakao Pay's listing schedule has already been postponed once, and delaying it until next year could be a significant burden for the Financial Supervisory Service as well.The majority view in the local market is that Kakao Pay will submit a revised securities declaration at the end of September (likely sometime next week). And the bookbuilding will begin around mid-October after the 15 business day grace period. In this case, the listing date is likely to be around mid-November.What changes are to be added?Kakao Pay has so far provided a service that recommends insurance or financial investment products that meet individual needs through the app. The FSC concluded that this was a product brokerage service, not an advertisement.Of course, a business license is required to broker financial products in the Korean market. An insurance broker license is required to broker insurance, and a brokerage license is needed to broker financial investment products under the Capital Market Act.Currently, Kakao Pay does not have these licenses. Instead, Kakao Pay's subsidiaries, KP Insurance Service, and Kakao Pay Securities, hold these financial product brokerage licenses. However, the FSC raised the issue, saying that this is a license owned by a subsidiary, not a license of Kakao Pay.Therefore, the FSC requested Kakao Pay to immediately stop these services from September 25, when the guidance period of the Financial Consumer Protection Act ends. In this regard, Kakao Pay has already temporarily suspended insurance product brokerage services such as car insurance, companion animal insurance, and overseas travel insurance.Kakao Pay has no choice but to include the newly changed regulatory environment and the resulting temporary suspension of services in the revised securities report. Then, the question is whether a lowering of the offering price is inevitable.
The general view of the local market is that a downward revision of the offering price is inevitable. As 32% of sales in the first half of this year were from the brokerage of financial products, future growth and sales estimates will have to be revised down.
Of course, Kakao Pay can resume these financial product brokerage services under the name of its subsidiaries or by directly obtaining a license. However, the problem is that the cost structure will be significantly different if it becomes a financial product brokerage service rather than an advertisement. That is, it is inevitable to make a major revision to whether Kakao Pay can achieve the previously estimated sales/profit growth rate with this cost structure.


Kakao Pay IPO Schedule Update & Short Trading Idea on Kakao Bank

Kakaopay

Kakao Pay IPO Schedule Update & Short Trading Idea on Kakao Bank