Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Kakao Bank Bookbuilding Results: Disclosing Subscription/Lockup Orders in Detail

A Classic Long/Short Approach for an IPO: Kakao Bank Vs. Korea Investment Holdings

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Complete Breakdown of Kakao Bank's Shareholding Structure for Float Estimation

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Kakao Bank Fast Entry Possibilities & Timeline: KOSPI 200, MSCI Standard, & FTSE All-World

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><strong>Kakao Bank's official bookbuilding results will be released after the market closes this afternoon. However, most of the important information has already been leaked to the market.</strong></p><p>First, more than ₩2,500T of subscription orders were poured into the bookbuilding. In addition, it was confirmed that the competition ratio of institutional investors for subscriptions was over 1,700 to 1. The competition ratio of 1,000 to 1 was already recorded on the first day, and a significant number of subscriptions were made on the second day as well.</p><p>The total value of subscription orders surpassed SKIET's ₩2,417T, which was the largest amount in history for an IPO in Korea.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>As a result, the offering price was also almost decided at ₩39,000, which is the upper end of the indicative price band.</strong></p></div><p> The market capitalization based on ₩39,000 is ₩18.6T. This is close to that of KB Financial Group (₩21.6T) and Shinhan Financial Group (₩19.9T). So, it is likely that Kakao Bank will become the largest market cap bank in Korea after its listing.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market cap"}'>Market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KB Financial Group Inc"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>KB Financial Group</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Shinhan Financial Group</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Kakao Bank"}'>Kakao Bank</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"105560"}' data-sheets-formula='="105560"'>105560</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"055550"}' data-sheets-formula='="055550"'>055550</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"323410"}' data-sheets-formula='="323410"'>323410</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market cap"}'><strong>Market cap</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":21580.431048}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[-1]C[0], "shares")*googlefinance(R[-1]C[0], "price")/1000000000'><strong>₩21,580.4B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":19940.7427844}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[-1]C[0], "shares")*googlefinance(R[-1]C[0], "price")/1000000000'><strong>₩19,940.7B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"₩18,633.1B"}'><strong>₩18,633.1B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; DART"}'>Source: KRX &amp; DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The general view of institutions on the public offering price of Kakao Bank, which has been proven in this bookbuilding, is that it is NOT ridiculously high.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>They seem to have paid attention to the growth potential of Kakao Bank as a platform business and the rapid growth that supports it.</strong></p></div><p>In fact, the price accepted as the ceiling by local street is PBR 4x, but since the upper end of the indicative price band stays at 3.5x, it is said that they generally did not feel any objection to the price.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="150">
<col width="150">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Indicative price band"}'>Indicative price band</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Low"}'>Lower end</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"High"}'>Upper end</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price"}'>Price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":33000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>₩33,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":39000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>₩39,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Implied market cap"}'>Implied market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15766.510221}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*R14C2/1000000000">₩15,766.5B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":18633.148443}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*R14C2/1000000000">₩18,633.1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Equity, including capital inflow from IPO"}'>Equity, including capital inflow from IPO</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5009.4}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-13]C[0]+R[-12]C[0]">₩5,009.4B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5402.05}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-13]C[-1]+(Terms!R[-15]C[-1]*R[-5]C[0])/1000000000">₩5,402.1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PBR"}'><strong>PBR</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3.1473849604743087}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>3.15x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3.449273598541294}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>3.45x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><div class="content-highlight">
<p>To clarify Kakao Bank's PBR calculations:</p>
<ol>
<li>Implied market cap by the indicative price band / Equity as of 1Q21 gives a 5.53~6.54x.</li>
<li>(Implied market cap by the indicative price band - Capital inflow from IPO) / Equity as of 1Q21 gives a 4.78~5.64x.</li>
<li><strong>Implied market cap by the indicative price band / (Equity as of 1Q21 + Capital inflow from IPO) gives you a 3.15~3.45x.</strong></li>
</ol>
<p><strong>The bankers used No. 2 to derive the indicative price band in the IPO prospectus. And many in the local street seem to be using No. 3 to get a sense of Kakao Bank's actual PBR post IPO.</strong></p>
</div><p>In particular, local institutional investors paid attention to the fact that Kakao Bank opened 6.2 million new accounts within one year. This is 40 times the total number of non-face-to-face accounts opened by 16 commercial banks in Korea over the past four years. Kakao Bank also achieved a market share of 7% in the personal credit loan market within four years of its establishment. </p><p>In other words, although Kakao Bank still provides simple banking services, the market acknowledges the actual capabilities of Kakao Bank's online platform in that it has achieved a huge customer base expansion in a short period of time.</p>

Kakao Bank's official bookbuilding results will be released after the market closes this afternoon. However, most of the important information has already been leaked to the market.First, more than ₩2,500T of subscription orders were poured into the bookbuilding. In addition, it was confirmed that the competition ratio of institutional investors for subscriptions was over 1,700 to 1. The competition ratio of 1,000 to 1 was already recorded on the first day, and a significant number of subscriptions were made on the second day as well.The total value of subscription orders surpassed SKIET's ₩2,417T, which was the largest amount in history for an IPO in Korea.As a result, the offering price was also almost decided at ₩39,000, which is the upper end of the indicative price band. The market capitalization based on ₩39,000 is ₩18.6T. This is close to that of KB Financial Group (₩21.6T) and Shinhan Financial Group (₩19.9T). So, it is likely that Kakao Bank will become the largest market cap bank in Korea after its listing.








Market cap
KB Financial Group
Shinhan Financial Group
Kakao Bank


Ticker
105560
055550
323410


Market cap
₩21,580.4B
₩19,940.7B
₩18,633.1B

Source: KRX &amp; DART

The general view of institutions on the public offering price of Kakao Bank, which has been proven in this bookbuilding, is that it is NOT ridiculously high.They seem to have paid attention to the growth potential of Kakao Bank as a platform business and the rapid growth that supports it.In fact, the price accepted as the ceiling by local street is PBR 4x, but since the upper end of the indicative price band stays at 3.5x, it is said that they generally did not feel any objection to the price.







Indicative price band
Lower end
Upper end


Price
₩33,000
₩39,000


Implied market cap
₩15,766.5B
₩18,633.1B


Equity, including capital inflow from IPO
₩5,009.4B
₩5,402.1B


PBR
3.15x
3.45x

Source: DART


To clarify Kakao Bank's PBR calculations:

Implied market cap by the indicative price band / Equity as of 1Q21 gives a 5.53~6.54x.
(Implied market cap by the indicative price band - Capital inflow from IPO) / Equity as of 1Q21 gives a 4.78~5.64x.
Implied market cap by the indicative price band / (Equity as of 1Q21 + Capital inflow from IPO) gives you a 3.15~3.45x.

The bankers used No. 2 to derive the indicative price band in the IPO prospectus. And many in the local street seem to be using No. 3 to get a sense of Kakao Bank's actual PBR post IPO.
In particular, local institutional investors paid attention to the fact that Kakao Bank opened 6.2 million new accounts within one year. This is 40 times the total number of non-face-to-face accounts opened by 16 commercial banks in Korea over the past four years. Kakao Bank also achieved a market share of 7% in the personal credit loan market within four years of its establishment. In other words, although Kakao Bank still provides simple banking services, the market acknowledges the actual capabilities of Kakao Bank's online platform in that it has achieved a huge customer base expansion in a short period of time.

Kakao Bank Bookbuilding: What's Really Happened Among Local Institutions?

KakaoBank

Kakao Bank Bookbuilding: What's Really Happened Among Local Institutions?