FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social upheaval in the USA.  The reduced risk of legal action against Clinton over her use of emails (following the latest FBI release) also improves the prospect for stability post-election. Global growth indicators have generally improved over recent months and commodity prices have continued to build on gains earlier in the year (with the exception of oil prices).  US employment data were stronger than expected, including higher wages growth.  This is supporting rising global bond yields from still very low levels.  As global bond yields rise, while they remain largely stagnant in Japan, the JPY is likely to weaken against most currencies.  We expect this trend to continue unless there is a surprise Trump victory.  We see scope for JPY to unwind a good deal of its significant gains this year.  The RBNZ are expected to cut rates this week, but they will do so reluctantly and are likely to move to a neutral bias, supporting the case for a stronger NZD/JPY.  AUD is pressing against resistance supported by resurgent coal and iron ore prices, but recent economic reports suggest domestic growth may be losing momentum.  CAD has significantly underperformed AUD and NZD, undermined by lower oil prices, dovish Bank of Canada statements, and fears over the US election. More stable oil prices and a solid Clinton victory may see CAD recover lost ground.</em></p>

The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social upheaval in the USA.  The reduced risk of legal action against Clinton over her use of emails (following the latest FBI release) also improves the prospect for stability post-election. Global growth indicators have generally improved over recent months and commodity prices have continued to build on gains earlier in the year (with the exception of oil prices).  US employment data were stronger than expected, including higher wages growth.  This is supporting rising global bond yields from still very low levels.  As global bond yields rise, while they remain largely stagnant in Japan, the JPY is likely to weaken against most currencies.  We expect this trend to continue unless there is a surprise Trump victory.  We see scope for JPY to unwind a good deal of its significant gains this year.  The RBNZ are expected to cut rates this week, but they will do so reluctantly and are likely to move to a neutral bias, supporting the case for a stronger NZD/JPY.  AUD is pressing against resistance supported by resurgent coal and iron ore prices, but recent economic reports suggest domestic growth may be losing momentum.  CAD has significantly underperformed AUD and NZD, undermined by lower oil prices, dovish Bank of Canada statements, and fears over the US election. More stable oil prices and a solid Clinton victory may see CAD recover lost ground.

JPY Has Scope to Fall Further on Rising Global Inflation Indicators

USD

JPY Has Scope to Fall Further on Rising Global Inflation Indicators